Torreense 1-2 Sunderland: Prediction vs Result 15.10.26

Torreense vs Sunderland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Torreense	Draw	Sunderland
Model	43%	29%	29%
Market	10%	17%	73%
Published	18%	20%	62%
Edge	+8%	+3%	-11%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Torreense vs Sunderland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.40Now 1.31 -0.09

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Torreense	6.90	9.61	+2.71
Draw	5.03	5.58	+0.56
Sunderland	1.40	1.31	-0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Torreense and Sunderland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.44Torreense

1.15Sunderland

Total expected goals: 2.59
Attack rating (Torreense / Sunderland): 0.91 / 1.13
Defence rating (Torreense / Sunderland): 0.89 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Torreense vs Sunderland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 7.4% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 1 9.6% 13.7% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.8% 9.0% 5.1% 2.0% 0.7% 3 3.8% 4.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Torreense goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Torreense vs Sunderland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 74%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 26%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Torreense vs Sunderland

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Torreense	18%	5.53
	Draw	20%	5.01
	Sunderland	62%	1.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48%	2.09
	Under 2.5	52%	1.92
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.87
	No	47%	2.14
Double chance	1X (Torreense or draw)	38%	2.63
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Sunderland)	82%	1.22
Handicap -1	Sunderland win by 2+	12%	8.30
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—