Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia, the probabilities show Levski Sofia at 48% to win, while Jagiellonia sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Levski Sofia has an expected goals figure of 1.52 compared to Jagiellonia’s 1.00, indicating a stronger attacking potential.

However, Jagiellonia's recent form includes three wins in their last six matches, which could challenge Levski Sofia's slight edge. Both teams have a 51% probability of scoring, suggesting that while Levski Sofia is favored, the match could be competitive. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Levski Sofia	Draw	Jagiellonia
Model	48%	28%	24%
Market	48%	26%	26%
Published	48%	27%	25%
Edge	0%	0%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.00.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Levski Sofia, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.98Now 1.98 -0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Levski Sofia	1.98	1.98	-0.00
Draw	3.60	3.60	+0.00
Jagiellonia	3.55	3.67	+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Levski Sofia

1.00Jagiellonia

Total expected goals: 2.52
Attack rating (Levski Sofia / Jagiellonia): 0.98 / 1.37
Defence rating (Levski Sofia / Jagiellonia): 0.61 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 6.8% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 1 11.0% 13.5% 6.1% 2.1% 0.6% 2 9.3% 9.3% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 3 4.7% 4.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 2.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Levski Sofia goals. Columns: Jagiellonia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Levski Sofia	48%	2.09
	Draw	27%	3.73
	Jagiellonia	25%	3.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.17
	Under 2.5	54%	1.86
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.97
	No	49%	2.03
Double chance	1X (Levski Sofia or draw)	75%	1.34
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Jagiellonia)	52%	1.92
Handicap -1	Levski Sofia win by 2+	25%	3.99
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia recent form

Levski Sofia 3W 2D 1L

Jagiellonia 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Levski Sofia at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Jagiellonia away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-1
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Levski Sofia at home only, Jagiellonia away only.