Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Sparta Praha and Bournemouth, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Bournemouth at 56%, compared to Sparta Praha's 21%. The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. However, the recent form of both teams could impact this outcome, with Bournemouth on a six-match winning streak, while Sparta Praha has drawn or lost in three of their last five matches.

Expected goals further support Bournemouth's position, with 1.28 compared to Sparta Praha's 1.16. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, while both teams to score is estimated at 51%. Despite the data favoring Bournemouth, the unpredictability of football means Sparta Praha could still pose a challenge.

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sparta Praha	Draw	Bournemouth
Model	32%	30%	38%
Market	16%	21%	63%
Published	20%	23%	57%
Edge	+4%	+2%	-6%

Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.58Now 1.50 -0.08

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sparta Praha	5.12	6.00	+0.88
Draw	4.20	4.44	+0.24
Bournemouth	1.58	1.50	-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sparta Praha and Bournemouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Sparta Praha

1.28Bournemouth

Total expected goals: 2.44
Attack rating (Sparta Praha / Bournemouth): 1.18 / 1.58
Defence rating (Sparta Praha / Bournemouth): 0.67 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 9.9% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 1 8.9% 14.2% 8.3% 3.5% 1.5% 2 5.9% 7.5% 4.8% 2.0% 0.9% 3 2.3% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Sparta Praha goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sparta Praha	20%	5.04
	Draw	23%	4.26
	Bournemouth	57%	1.76
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.27
	Under 2.5	56%	1.78
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.97
	No	49%	2.03
Double chance	1X (Sparta Praha or draw)	43%	2.31
	12 (either side)	77%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Bournemouth)	80%	1.25
Handicap -1	Bournemouth win by 2+	17%	5.75
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—