Lillestrom vs Plzen Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Lillestrom vs Plzen preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Lillestrom and Plzen, the probabilities show Lillestrom at 36% to win, while Plzen stands at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 7% probability. Lillestrom's expected goals are 2.02 compared to Plzen's 1.89, indicating a competitive match.

However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions. Lillestrom's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Plzen has 4 wins and 2 losses in the same span. This variance in form could influence the outcome, making it a match to watch closely.

Lillestrom vs Plzen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lillestrom	Draw	Plzen
Model	43%	23%	34%
Market	31%	25%	43%
Published	34%	25%	41%
Edge	+3%	-1%	-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Lillestrom vs Plzen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Plzen, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.34Now 2.18 -0.16

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Lillestrom	2.75	3.01	+0.26
Draw	3.70	3.73	+0.02
Plzen	2.34	2.18	-0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lillestrom and Plzen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97Lillestrom

1.74Plzen

Total expected goals: 3.71
Attack rating (Lillestrom / Plzen): 1.20 / 1.29
Defence rating (Lillestrom / Plzen): 1.12 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lillestrom vs Plzen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% 2.1% 1.4% 1 4.0% 9.2% 7.3% 4.2% 2.7% 2 4.8% 8.3% 7.2% 4.2% 2.7% 3 3.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.7% 1.8% 4+ 2.4% 4.2% 3.7% 2.1% 1.4%

Rows: Lillestrom goals. Columns: Plzen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lillestrom vs Plzen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 51%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lillestrom vs Plzen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lillestrom	34%	2.92
	Draw	25%	4.04
	Plzen	41%	2.44
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.39
	Under 2.5	28%	3.53
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.39
	No	28%	3.55
Double chance	1X (Lillestrom or draw)	59%	1.69
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Plzen)	66%	1.52
Handicap -1	Plzen win by 2+	17%	5.72
	Push (exactly one goal)	16%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Lillestrom and Plzen recent form

Lillestrom 4W 1D 1L

Plzen 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lillestrom at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

Plzen away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 2.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 2

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lillestrom at home only, Plzen away only.