NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia, the model gives NEC Nijmegen a 47% chance of winning, while Omonia Nicosia sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with a 7% probability. The expected goals for NEC Nijmegen is 1.35, compared to Omonia Nicosia's 1.89, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.

However, NEC Nijmegen's recent form shows a trend with 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Omonia Nicosia, on the other hand, has won 3 of their last 5 matches, suggesting they may carry momentum into this encounter. Both teams have a 64% chance of scoring, which supports the likelihood of a competitive match.

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	NEC Nijmegen	Draw	Omonia Nicosia
Model	27%	24%	49%
Market	53%	23%	24%
Published	46%	24%	30%
Edge	-7%	0%	+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NEC Nijmegen, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.75Now 1.77 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
NEC Nijmegen	1.75	1.77	+0.02
Draw	3.95	4.01	+0.06
Omonia Nicosia	4.05	4.00	-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35NEC Nijmegen

1.89Omonia Nicosia

Total expected goals: 3.24
Attack rating (NEC Nijmegen / Omonia Nicosia): 1.04 / 1.21
Defence rating (NEC Nijmegen / Omonia Nicosia): 1.30 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 6.4% 7.0% 4.4% 3.2% 1 4.3% 11.0% 9.4% 5.9% 4.3% 2 3.6% 6.8% 6.4% 4.0% 2.9% 3 1.6% 3.0% 2.9% 1.8% 1.3% 4+ 0.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.6%

Rows: NEC Nijmegen goals. Columns: Omonia Nicosia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	NEC Nijmegen	46%	2.16
	Draw	24%	4.22
	Omonia Nicosia	30%	3.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.59
	Under 2.5	37%	2.69
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.57
	No	36%	2.77
Double chance	1X (NEC Nijmegen or draw)	70%	1.43
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Omonia Nicosia)	54%	1.87
Handicap -1	NEC Nijmegen win by 2+	12%	8.41
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia recent form

NEC Nijmegen 1W 4D 1L

Omonia Nicosia 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

NEC Nijmegen at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Omonia Nicosia away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-1
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen at home only, Omonia Nicosia away only.