Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen

· Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion· Referee Oleksiy Derevinskiy

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Bayer Leverkusen to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
OFIDrawBayer Leverkusen

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOFIDrawBayer Leverkusen
Model30%23%47%
Market8%13%79%
Published13%16%71%
Edge+6%+2%-8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.63.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.35Now 1.20 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
OFI8.6012.66+4.06
Draw5.207.25+2.05
Bayer Leverkusen1.351.20-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

OFI and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.63OFI
2.07Bayer Leverkusen
Total expected goals
3.70
Attack rating (OFI / Bayer Leverkusen)
1.20 / 1.70
Defence rating (OFI / Bayer Leverkusen)
1.04 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.3% 5.3% 3.7% 3.1% 1 3.2% 9.2% 8.6% 6.0% 5.0% 2 3.3% 6.8% 7.0% 4.9% 4.1% 3 1.8% 3.7% 3.8% 2.6% 2.2% 4+ 1.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3%

Rows: OFI goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2OFI13%7.65
Draw16%6.43
Bayer Leverkusen71%1.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.51
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.46
Double chance1X (OFI or draw)29%3.49
12 (either side)84%1.18
X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen)87%1.15
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+28%3.56
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

OFI and Bayer Leverkusen recent form

OFI 2W 1D 3L
Bayer Leverkusen 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

OFI at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

Bayer Leverkusen away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: OFI at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.

Injuries & availability

OFI absences

  • A. Chatzigiovanis off the roster
  • A. Leya Iseka groin injury
  • C. Sielis muscle injury
  • N. Christogeorgos inactive
  • N. Marinakis groin injury

Bayer Leverkusen absences

  • C. Kofane muscle injury
  • E. Ben Seghir muscle injury
  • G. Doue calf injury
  • J. Hofmann off the roster
  • K. Eichhorn illness
  • M. Culbreath foot injury
  • M. Terrier muscle injury
  • T. Oermann off the roster
  • V. Boniface off the roster

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

OFI lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 K. Lilo
  2. 2 K. Krizmanić
  3. 15 A. Poungouras
  4. 5 K. Kostoulas
  5. 3 N. Athanasiou
  6. 41 A. Bouchalakis
  7. 14 T. Androutsos
  8. 24 L. Dickmann
  9. 18 T. Nuss
  10. 19 K. Kodro
  11. 10 Aitor Cantalapiedra

Bench: Z. Karachalios, G. Kanellópoulos, T. Fountas, P. Katsikas, Borja González, G. Apostolakis, T. Romano, D. Nikolaou, G. Theodosoulakis, Thanasis Sitmalidis, Pavlos Kenourgiakis

Bayer Leverkusen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 J. Blaswich
  2. 2 F. Medina
  3. 4 J. Quansah
  4. 5 L. Badé
  5. 17 Lucas Vázquez
  6. 24 Aleix García
  7. 6 E. Fernández
  8. 7 J. Hofmann
  9. 10 M. Tillman
  10. 9 Afonso Moreira
  11. 14 P. Schick

Bench: M. Flekken, Miguel Gutiérrez, E. Tapsoba, M. Diaby, N. Tella, I. Maza, N. Lomb, B. Hawighorst

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