Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş

· Prezero Arena, Sinsheim· Referee Lawrence Visser

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Hoffenheim to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HoffenheimDrawBeşiktaş

Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHoffenheimDrawBeşiktaş
Model28%23%49%
Market49%24%27%
Published44%24%33%
Edge-5%0%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.92Now 1.96 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hoffenheim1.921.96+0.04
Draw3.954.00+0.05
Beşiktaş3.403.50+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Hoffenheim
2.08Beşiktaş
Total expected goals
3.60
Attack rating (Hoffenheim / Beşiktaş)
1.24 / 1.49
Defence rating (Hoffenheim / Beşiktaş)
1.20 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 4.8% 5.9% 4.1% 3.5% 1 3.3% 9.5% 9.0% 6.2% 5.3% 2 3.1% 6.5% 6.8% 4.7% 4.0% 3 1.6% 3.3% 3.4% 2.4% 2.0% 4+ 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1%

Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: Beşiktaş goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hoffenheim44%2.29
Draw24%4.22
Beşiktaş33%3.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.44
Under 2.530%3.29
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.26
Double chance1X (Hoffenheim or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Beşiktaş)56%1.77
Handicap -1Hoffenheim win by 2+13%7.77
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş recent form

Hoffenheim 1W 0D 5L
Beşiktaş 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Beşiktaş away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim at home only, Beşiktaş away only.

Injuries & availability

Hoffenheim absences

  • A. Hajdari muscle injury
  • L. Engelns off the roster
  • P. Wimmer thigh injury

Beşiktaş absences

  • C. Keles off the roster
  • D. Vlahovic illness
  • M. Rashica injury
  • V. Cerny muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Hoffenheim lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 O. Baumann
  2. 13 Bernardo
  3. 28 K. Machida
  4. 5 O. Kabak
  5. 34 V. Coufal
  6. 7 L. Avdullahu
  7. 18 W. Burger
  8. 14 A. Daghim
  9. 11 F. Asllani
  10. 27 A. Kramarić
  11. 10 A. Hložek

Bench: R. Hranáč, Max Moerstedt, V. Gendrey, Nathan De Cat, T. Lemperle, B. Conté, A. Prass, Natnael Abraha, Cajetan Benjamin Lenz, L. Petersson, L. Philipp, M. Rots

Beşiktaş lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Nübel
  2. 11 K. Ouattara
  3. 53 E. Topçu
  4. 12 E. Agbadou
  5. 62 A. Murillo
  6. 4 W. Ndidi
  7. 15 J. Olaitan
  8. 19 L. Trossard
  9. 10 O. Kökçü
  10. 29 I. Fakili
  11. 9 Oh Hyeon-Gyu

Bench: S. Özcan, K. Yılmaz, E. Poku, F. Miretti, Taylan Bulut, R. Yılmaz, Tiago Djaló, Ü. Akdağ, Y. Özcan, Sami Bircan Ahmet, D. Alemdar, S. Kılıçsoy

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match