Beşiktaş 2-2 Crystal Palace: Prediction vs Result 22.10.26

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Beşiktaş	Draw	Crystal Palace
Model	69%	17%	15%
Market	43%	25%	32%
Published	49%	23%	28%
Edge	+6%	-2%	-4%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.35.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Beşiktaş below our published probability: +6.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Beşiktaş, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.15Now 2.23 +0.08

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Beşiktaş	2.15	2.23	+0.08
Draw	3.72	3.78	+0.06
Crystal Palace	3.10	2.96	-0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.88Beşiktaş

1.35Crystal Palace

Total expected goals: 4.23
Attack rating (Beşiktaş / Crystal Palace): 1.39 / 1.24
Defence rating (Beşiktaş / Crystal Palace): 0.93 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1 3.6% 6.2% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2 6.0% 8.2% 5.5% 2.5% 1.1% 3 5.8% 7.8% 5.3% 2.4% 1.1% 4+ 8.4% 11.4% 7.7% 3.5% 1.6%

Rows: Beşiktaş goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 79%

Over 3.5 61%

Both teams to score: 71%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Beşiktaş	49%	2.03
	Draw	23%	4.34
	Crystal Palace	28%	3.60
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	1.26
	Under 2.5	20%	4.90
Both teams to score	Yes	71%	1.42
	No	29%	3.39
Double chance	1X (Beşiktaş or draw)	72%	1.38
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Crystal Palace)	51%	1.97
Handicap -1	Beşiktaş win by 2+	49%	2.03
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace recent form

Beşiktaş 4W 0D 2L

Crystal Palace 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Beşiktaş at home

Record (W-D-L): 4-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.25
Goals against / match: 0.25
Clean sheets: 3 of 4

They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.