Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Rennes and Olympiakos Piraeus, the probabilities show a close contest with Rennes at 36% and Olympiakos Piraeus at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 65%, indicating a high-scoring game, while both teams to score stands at 61%.
Rennes has an expected goals figure of 1.10, significantly lower than Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.27. This discrepancy suggests that while Rennes has shown some recent form with two wins in their last three matches, Olympiakos Piraeus is on a strong winning streak of six consecutive victories. The confidence grade for this prediction is B, reflecting some uncertainty.
Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus: model vs market
| Source | Rennes | Draw | Olympiakos Piraeus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Edge | -7% | -1% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Olympiakos Piraeus below our published probability: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +23.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Olympiakos Piraeus, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 2.11 | 2.21 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.55 | -0.05 |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 3.23 | 3.12 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rennes and Olympiakos Piraeus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.36
- Attack rating (Rennes / Olympiakos Piraeus)
- 1.38 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Rennes / Olympiakos Piraeus)
- 1.38 / 0.51
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rennes goals. Columns: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rennes or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Olympiakos Piraeus) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olympiakos Piraeus win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rennes and Olympiakos Piraeus recent form
Rennes
3W 1D 2L
Olympiakos Piraeus
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rennes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Olympiakos Piraeus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Rennes at home only, Olympiakos Piraeus away only.
Injuries & availability
Rennes absences
-
A. Ait Boudlal
injury
-
E. Lepaul
ankle injury
- V. Rongier muscle injury
Olympiakos Piraeus absences
-
A. El Kaabi
broken leg
-
B. Popovic
off the roster
-
Clayton
off the roster
-
J. Roca
off the roster
-
L. Scipioni
off the roster
-
M. Mouandilmadji
off the roster
-
Y. Yazici
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Rennes lineup · 5-3-2
- 30 B. Samba
- 18 M. Nagida
- 5 Gonçalo Oliveira
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 45 M. Camara
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 17 S. Szymański
- 11 Mousa Tamari
- 22 B. Dia
Bench: D. Cissé, L. Blas, Eliezer Mayenda, N. Lemaître, V. Rongier, Q. Merlin, Elias Legendre Quiñonez, A. Ait Boudlal, Kilian Belazzoug, H. Do Marcolino, A. Nordin, I. Soumaré
Olympiakos Piraeus lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 S. Ortega
- 70 S. Onyemaechi
- 6 David Carmo
- 45 P. Retsos
- 2 M. Saliakas
- 15 G. Puerta
- 32 S. Hezze
- 7 K. Fortounis
- 8 Gustavo Sá
- 17 L. Bailey
- 34 A. González
Bench: Z. Smajlović, L. Pirola, Gelson Martins, R. Yaremchuk, R. Freuler, Jota Silva, Chiquinho, M. Pedersen, N. Tiknizyan, P. Toufakis, D. Stournaras, I. Georgakopoulos
Other League Stage - 4 fixtures
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- AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC — match page 2026-11-05
- Real Sociedad v Lyon — match page 2026-11-05
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Rennes, previous: Nice v Rennes analysis
- Rennes, next: Rennes v Lille analysis
- Olympiakos Piraeus, previous: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha prediction