Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha

· Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus· Referee Espen Eskas

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Olympiakos Piraeus to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Olympiakos PiraeusDrawSparta Praha

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOlympiakos PiraeusDrawSparta Praha
Model46%33%21%
Market63%21%15%
Published59%24%17%
Edge-4%+3%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Olympiakos Piraeus, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.57Now 1.50 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Olympiakos Piraeus1.571.50-0.07
Draw4.204.47+0.27
Sparta Praha5.706.20+0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Olympiakos Piraeus
0.72Sparta Praha
Total expected goals
1.91
Attack rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Sparta Praha)
1.02 / 1.21
Defence rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Sparta Praha)
0.50 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.0% 9.3% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1 16.4% 13.9% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 2 10.5% 7.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 3 4.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Columns: Sparta Praha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Olympiakos Piraeus59%1.69
Draw24%4.14
Sparta Praha17%5.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.32
Under 2.570%1.43
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.70
No63%1.59
Double chance1X (Olympiakos Piraeus or draw)83%1.20
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Sparta Praha)41%2.45
Handicap -1Olympiakos Piraeus win by 2+21%4.76
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha recent form

Olympiakos Piraeus 5W 0D 1L
Sparta Praha 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Olympiakos Piraeus at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Sparta Praha away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus at home only, Sparta Praha away only.

Injuries & availability

Olympiakos Piraeus absences

  • A. El Kaabi broken leg
  • B. Popovic off the roster
  • Clayton off the roster
  • J. Roca off the roster
  • K. Fortounis muscle injury
  • L. Bailey injury
  • L. Scipioni off the roster
  • M. Mouandilmadji off the roster
  • Y. Yazici knee injury

Sparta Praha absences

  • A. Karabec ankle injury
  • A. Sevinsky injury
  • E. Cobbaut groin injury
  • E. Uchenna groin injury
  • J. Grimaldo inactive
  • J. Mercado calf injury
  • M. Andersen knee injury
  • M. Rynes ankle injury
  • O. Penxa knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Olympiakos Piraeus lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Ortega
  2. 70 S. Onyemaechi
  3. 5 L. Pirola
  4. 45 P. Retsos
  5. 2 M. Saliakas
  6. 32 S. Hezze
  7. 19 R. Freuler
  8. 20 Jota Silva
  9. 22 Chiquinho
  10. 10 Gelson Martins
  11. 11 R. Yaremchuk

Bench: Z. Smajlović, David Carmo, Gustavo Sá, G. Puerta, M. Pedersen, A. González, N. Tiknizyan, C. Filis, P. Toufakis, D. Stournaras, I. Georgakopoulos

Sparta Praha lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 44 J. Surovčík
  2. 2 M. Suchomel
  3. 30 J. Zelený
  4. 6 T. Guddal
  5. 25 K. Hoever
  6. 5 Santiago Eneme
  7. 28 R. Macek
  8. 38 H. Sochurek
  9. 7 J. Alcócer
  10. 29 M. Vojta
  11. 31 M. Jurásek

Bench: P. Kadeřábek, J. Martinec, J. Braut Brunes, V. Vitályos, A. Irving, S. Mannsverk, L. Mbe Soh, P. Vydra, E. Singhateh, K. Hegyi, L. Franc

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match