Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

· Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb· Referee Manfredas Lukjancukas

Full time2 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Dinamo Zagreb to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dinamo ZagrebDrawNEC Nijmegen

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDinamo ZagrebDrawNEC Nijmegen
Model77%14%9%
Market65%20%15%
Published68%19%14%
Edge+3%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.04 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Dinamo Zagreb below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Dinamo Zagreb, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.72Now 1.48 -0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dinamo Zagreb1.721.48-0.24
Draw4.104.76+0.66
NEC Nijmegen4.516.28+1.77

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.04Dinamo Zagreb
1.03NEC Nijmegen
Total expected goals
4.07
Attack rating (Dinamo Zagreb / NEC Nijmegen)
1.46 / 0.93
Defence rating (Dinamo Zagreb / NEC Nijmegen)
0.95 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1 4.7% 5.9% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 2 7.9% 8.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 3 8.0% 8.2% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 13.0% 13.3% 6.8% 2.3% 0.7%

Rows: Dinamo Zagreb goals. Columns: NEC Nijmegen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 58%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dinamo Zagreb68%1.48
Draw19%5.37
NEC Nijmegen14%7.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.30
Under 2.523%4.38
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.60
Double chance1X (Dinamo Zagreb or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or NEC Nijmegen)32%3.10
Handicap -1Dinamo Zagreb win by 2+59%1.70
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen recent form

Dinamo Zagreb 3W 1D 2L
NEC Nijmegen 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dinamo Zagreb at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

NEC Nijmegen away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
5.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Dinamo Zagreb at home only, NEC Nijmegen away only.

Injuries & availability

Dinamo Zagreb absences

  • A. Stojakovic foot injury
  • F. Topic off the roster
  • I. Nevistic off the roster
  • N. Nsoki off the roster
  • P. Tabinas off the roster
  • R. Mudrazija off the roster

NEC Nijmegen absences

  • A. Tahaui off the roster
  • A. Thomas suspended
  • B. Nuytinck ankle injury
  • D. Tadic calf injury
  • E. Mor groin injury
  • I. Hansen-Aaroen off the roster
  • M. Bakker off the roster
  • P. Sandler injury
  • Y. Moslih inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Dinamo Zagreb lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 24 D. Kotarski
  2. 22 Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf
  3. 26 S. McKenna
  4. 36 Sergi Domínguez
  5. 15 N. Galešić
  6. 27 J. Mišić
  7. 11 A. Hoxha
  8. 17 L. Ivanušec
  9. 10 L. Stojković
  10. 23 Iker Almena
  11. 9 D. Beljo

Bench: D. Zagorac, B. Goda, K. Kravtsov, S. Radeljić, Dani Rodríguez, M. Zajc, S. Prevljak, M. Lisica, M. Valinčić, I. Filipović, L. Kačavenda, M. Oršić

NEC Nijmegen lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Crettaz
  2. 24 Deveron Fonville
  3. 22 A. Kaplan
  4. 21 T. Storm
  5. 99 Clement Bischoff
  6. 18 D. Geiger
  7. 6 D. Nejašmić
  8. 4 P. Schuurs
  9. 20 N. Lebreton
  10. 9 T. Chery
  11. 30 B. Linssen

Bench: W. Willumsson, N. Polster, K. Sierhuis, Kevin Kers, Jamiro Monteiro, Joep Geneste, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, Gabriel Brás

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match