Ferencvarosi TC 4-1 Torreense: Prediction vs Result 22.10.26

Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ferencvarosi TC	Draw	Torreense
Model	61%	25%	14%
Market	74%	17%	9%
Published	71%	19%	10%
Edge	-3%	+2%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.74.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ferencvarosi TC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.39Now 1.29 -0.09

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ferencvarosi TC	1.39	1.29	-0.09
Draw	4.95	5.58	+0.63
Torreense	7.72	10.50	+2.78

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ferencvarosi TC and Torreense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Ferencvarosi TC

0.74Torreense

Total expected goals: 2.52
Attack rating (Ferencvarosi TC / Torreense): 1.19 / 0.91
Defence rating (Ferencvarosi TC / Torreense): 0.70 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 4.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1 13.3% 11.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.7% 9.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 7.5% 5.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 5.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Ferencvarosi TC goals. Columns: Torreense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ferencvarosi TC	71%	1.42
	Draw	19%	5.25
	Torreense	10%	9.64
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.17
	Under 2.5	54%	1.85
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.24
	No	55%	1.81
Double chance	1X (Ferencvarosi TC or draw)	90%	1.12
	12 (either side)	81%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Torreense)	29%	3.40
Handicap -1	Ferencvarosi TC win by 2+	36%	2.79
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ferencvarosi TC and Torreense recent form

Ferencvarosi TC 2W 4D 0L

Torreense 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ferencvarosi TC at home

Record (W-D-L): 4-1-0
Win rate: 80%
Goals for / match: 2.40
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 3 of 5

They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.