Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht: model vs market
| Source | Cercle Brugge | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Anderlecht, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | 3.39 | 3.46 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.67 | +0.04 |
| Anderlecht | 1.98 | 1.98 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Cercle Brugge / Anderlecht)
- 1.06 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Cercle Brugge / Anderlecht)
- 1.37 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cercle Brugge goals. Columns: Anderlecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cercle Brugge | 26% | 3.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Anderlecht | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cercle Brugge or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Anderlecht) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Anderlecht win by 2+ | 30% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht recent form
Cercle Brugge
0W 2D 4L
Anderlecht
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cercle Brugge at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Anderlecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cercle Brugge at home only, Anderlecht away only.
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cercle Brugge 2 · draws 1 · Anderlecht 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Anderlecht | 2-3 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-08-03 | Cercle Brugge | 0-2 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-03-16 | Anderlecht | 3-0 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-11-10 | Cercle Brugge | 0-5 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-04-28 | Cercle Brugge | 1-1 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-04-24 | Anderlecht | 3-0 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-12-27 | Anderlecht | 2-0 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-11-05 | Cercle Brugge | 0-3 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-03-12 | Anderlecht | 2-0 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-07-30 | Cercle Brugge | 1-0 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- KVC Westerlo v Antwerp — match page 2026-10-11
- KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Cercle Brugge, next: Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge analysis
- Anderlecht, next: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht: odds and pick