Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 9

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

· Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels· Referee W. De Cremer

Full time5 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Union St. Gilloise to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Union St. GilloiseDrawCercle Brugge

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUnion St. GilloiseDrawCercle Brugge
Model85%10%4%
Market72%17%11%
Published75%15%9%
Edge+3%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.35 vs 0.75.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Union St. Gilloise below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.30Now 1.30 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Union St. Gilloise1.301.30+0.00
Draw5.505.50+0.00
Cercle Brugge8.258.50+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.35Union St. Gilloise
0.75Cercle Brugge
Total expected goals
4.09
Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Cercle Brugge)
1.73 / 1.04
Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Cercle Brugge)
0.57 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1 5.2% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2 9.4% 7.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 3 10.4% 7.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 20.4% 15.2% 5.7% 1.4% 0.3%

Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Cercle Brugge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 58%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Union St. Gilloise75%1.33
Draw15%6.53
Cercle Brugge9%10.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.29
Under 2.523%4.44
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.95
No49%2.05
Double chance1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw)91%1.10
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Cercle Brugge)25%4.05
Handicap -1Union St. Gilloise win by 2+70%1.43
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge recent form

Union St. Gilloise 4W 2D 0L
Cercle Brugge 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Union St. Gilloise at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Cercle Brugge away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise at home only, Cercle Brugge away only.

Expected lineups

Union St. Gilloise lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 12 Hervé Koffi
  2. 55 Nikki Havenaar
  3. 29 Massire Sylla
  4. 4 Nohim Chibani
  5. 11 Guilherme Smith
  6. 23 Besfort Zeneli
  7. 6 Kamiel Van de Perre
  8. 27 Louis Patris
  9. 38 Relebohile Mofokeng
  10. 20 Dylan Aquino
  11. 30 Raul Florucz

Bench: Vic Chambaere, Adem Zorgane, Anouar Ait El Hadj, Kevin Rodriguez, Ivan Pavlić, Denzel De Roeve, Ross Sykes, Darius Olaru, Sekou Keita

Cercle Brugge lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Gaëtan Coucke
  2. 12 Valy Konaté
  3. 5 Emmanuel Kakou
  4. 33 Royer Caicedo
  5. 2 Ibrahim Diakité
  6. 28 Hannes Van Der Bruggen
  7. 18 Luke Le Roux
  8. 30 Tunde Akinsola
  9. 20 Abdoulie Manneh
  10. 13 Dante Vanzeir
  11. 9 Steve Ngoura

Bench: Erick Nunes, Gary Magnee, Yann Lienard, Lucas Michal, Krys Kouassi, Lukas Mondele, Tayo Adaramola, Viggo Martens, Louis Colman

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 5 · draws 3 · Cercle Brugge 2.

Union St. GilloiseDrawsCercle Brugge
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-26Cercle Brugge1-1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
2025-11-22Union St. Gilloise2-0Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
2024-12-08Cercle Brugge0-0Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
2024-10-27Union St. Gilloise1-3Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
2024-05-19Cercle Brugge1-2Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
2024-04-07Union St. Gilloise2-3Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
2023-12-03Union St. Gilloise2-1Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
2023-09-24Cercle Brugge0-2Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
2023-01-18Cercle Brugge1-1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
2022-10-09Union St. Gilloise2-1Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match