Genk vs Kortrijk: model vs market
| Source | Genk | Draw | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Genk vs Kortrijk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Genk, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk | 1.44 | 1.38 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 5.00 | +0.50 |
| Kortrijk | 6.10 | 7.05 | +0.95 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Genk and Kortrijk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Genk / Kortrijk)
- 1.04 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Genk / Kortrijk)
- 0.96 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Genk vs Kortrijk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Genk goals. Columns: Kortrijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Genk vs Kortrijk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Genk vs Kortrijk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genk | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Kortrijk | 14% | 7.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Genk or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Kortrijk) | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Genk win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Genk and Kortrijk recent form
Genk
2W 3D 1L
Kortrijk
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Genk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kortrijk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Genk at home only, Kortrijk away only.
Genk vs Kortrijk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Genk 7 · draws 0 · Kortrijk 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Genk | 3-2 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-10-05 | Kortrijk | 2-1 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-12-17 | Genk | 4-0 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-10-29 | Kortrijk | 0-3 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-12-26 | Kortrijk | 1-0 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-10-08 | Genk | 2-1 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-02-27 | Genk | 2-0 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2021-08-07 | Kortrijk | 1-2 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2021-01-09 | Kortrijk | 2-1 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2020-12-19 | Genk | 2-0 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- KVC Westerlo v Antwerp — match page 2026-10-11
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Before and after this match
- Genk, next: Genk – Standard Liege, 2026-10-25
- Kortrijk, next: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk prediction