Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven: Prediction vs Result 11.10.26

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Union St. Gilloise	Draw	OH Leuven
Model	85%	11%	4%
Market	76%	15%	9%
Published	78%	14%	8%
Edge	+2%	-1%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 0.64.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Union St. Gilloise below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.25Now 1.23 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Union St. Gilloise	1.25	1.23	-0.02
Draw	5.67	6.04	+0.37
OH Leuven	9.88	10.62	+0.74

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.08Union St. Gilloise

0.64OH Leuven

Total expected goals: 3.72
Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / OH Leuven): 1.78 / 0.73
Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / OH Leuven): 0.70 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1 7.0% 5.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2 11.5% 7.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 3 11.8% 7.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 19.5% 12.5% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2%

Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: OH Leuven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 51%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Union St. Gilloise	78%	1.28
	Draw	14%	6.99
	OH Leuven	8%	13.09
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.39
	Under 2.5	28%	3.54
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.19
	No	54%	1.84
Double chance	1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw)	92%	1.08
	12 (either side)	86%	1.17
	X2 (draw or OH Leuven)	22%	4.56
Handicap -1	Union St. Gilloise win by 2+	67%	1.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven recent form

Union St. Gilloise 6W 0D 0L

OH Leuven 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Union St. Gilloise at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-0
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.67
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 3 of 3

They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.

OH Leuven away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 2.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise at home only, OH Leuven away only.

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 7 · draws 2 · OH Leuven 0.

78% 22% 0%

Union St. GilloiseDrawsOH Leuven

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-01-24	OH Leuven	0-0	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League
2025-08-03	Union St. Gilloise	5-0	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League
2025-01-19	Union St. Gilloise	1-0	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League
2024-11-24	OH Leuven	1-1	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League
2024-03-02	OH Leuven	0-2	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League
2023-08-12	Union St. Gilloise	5-1	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League
2023-01-21	Union St. Gilloise	1-0	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League
2022-10-01	OH Leuven	0-3	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League
2022-03-11	OH Leuven	1-4	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League

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Before and after this match

Union St. Gilloise, next: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: odds and pick
OH Leuven, next: OH Leuven vs Lommel United: odds and pick