Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 8

SK Beveren vs Lommel United

· Freethiel Stadion, Beveren· Referee Michiel Allaerts, Belgium

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was SK Beveren to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SK BeverenDrawLommel United

SK Beveren vs Lommel United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSK BeverenDrawLommel United
Model47%29%25%
Market53%23%23%
Published52%25%24%
Edge-2%+1%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SK Beveren vs Lommel United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SK Beveren, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.80Now 1.75 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SK Beveren1.801.75-0.05
Draw3.754.00+0.25
Lommel United3.904.00+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SK Beveren and Lommel United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33SK Beveren
1.08Lommel United
Total expected goals
2.41
Attack rating (SK Beveren / Lommel United)
1.12 / 0.96
Defence rating (SK Beveren / Lommel United)
0.91 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SK Beveren vs Lommel United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 8.4% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 1 10.7% 14.2% 7.0% 2.5% 0.9% 2 7.9% 8.6% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 3 3.5% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: SK Beveren goals. Columns: Lommel United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SK Beveren vs Lommel United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SK Beveren vs Lommel United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SK Beveren52%1.94
Draw25%4.04
Lommel United24%4.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.25
Under 2.556%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.02
No50%1.98
Double chance1X (SK Beveren or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Lommel United)48%2.07
Handicap -1SK Beveren win by 2+20%5.12
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SK Beveren and Lommel United recent form

SK Beveren 3W 0D 3L
Lommel United 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SK Beveren at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lommel United away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: SK Beveren at home only, Lommel United away only.

Expected lineups

SK Beveren lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Johannes Schenk
  2. 4 Christophe Janssens
  3. 31 Bruno Godeau
  4. 35 Yoni Gomis
  5. 25 Cheick Oumar Konaté
  6. 44 Cheick Oumar Condé
  7. 18 Sieben Dewaele
  8. 17 Jearl Margaritha
  9. 22 Christian Brüls
  10. 5 Chris Lokesa
  11. 9 Moise Kaboré

Bench: Dominic Thompson, Ilyes Najim, Ferre Slegers, Junior Diouf, Arno Verschueren, Victor Olatunji, Jannik Thomas Robatsch, Josua Lusamba Tshiolola, Lennart Mertens

Lommel United lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 23 Matthias Pieklak
  2. 4 Shawn Adewoye
  3. 8 Nicolas Rommens
  4. 3 Timothy Eyoma
  5. 2 Jason van Duiven
  6. 44 Isaiah Dada-Mascoll
  7. 11 Stredair Appuah
  8. 10 Tom Reyners
  9. 15 Lucas Schoofs
  10. 7 Juho Talvitie
  11. 9 Don-Angelo Konadu

Bench: Nikola Ivezić, Elijah Olaniyi Odede, Emile Vandecraen, Đorđe Gordić, Rik Vercauteren, Niek Corthouts, Tristan Gooijer, Lars Beirinckx, Alexander Reumers

SK Beveren vs Lommel United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: SK Beveren 4 · draws 4 · Lommel United 2.

SK BeverenDrawsLommel United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08SK Beveren2-0Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2025-11-07Lommel United2-2SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
2025-02-22Lommel United1-2SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
2024-08-17SK Beveren2-1Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2024-04-19Lommel United3-1SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
2023-11-12SK Beveren2-2Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2022-11-27SK Beveren2-3Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2022-09-04Lommel United0-2SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
2022-03-19SK Beveren1-1Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2021-12-17Lommel United1-1SK BeverenChallenger Pro League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match