Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 8

Standard Liege vs Charleroi

· Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Liege· Referee Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Charleroi to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Standard LiegeDrawCharleroi

Standard Liege vs Charleroi: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStandard LiegeDrawCharleroi
Model28%26%46%
Market34%27%39%
Published33%27%41%
Edge-1%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.30.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Charleroi, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.30Now 2.40 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Standard Liege2.872.75-0.12
Draw3.383.42+0.05
Charleroi2.302.40+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Standard Liege and Charleroi expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30Standard Liege
1.69Charleroi
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Standard Liege / Charleroi)
1.17 / 1.26
Defence rating (Standard Liege / Charleroi)
1.07 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 7.4% 7.2% 4.1% 2.5% 1 5.4% 12.1% 9.3% 5.3% 3.3% 2 4.2% 7.2% 6.1% 3.4% 2.1% 3 1.8% 3.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.9% 4+ 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Standard Liege goals. Columns: Charleroi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Standard Liege vs Charleroi

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Standard Liege33%3.07
Draw27%3.71
Charleroi41%2.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.65
No40%2.53
Double chance1X (Standard Liege or draw)59%1.68
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Charleroi)67%1.48
Handicap -1Charleroi win by 2+25%4.04
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Standard Liege and Charleroi recent form

Standard Liege 3W 1D 2L
Charleroi 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Standard Liege at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Charleroi away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Standard Liege at home only, Charleroi away only.

Expected lineups

Standard Liege lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Matthieu Epolo
  2. 3 Gustav Mortensen
  3. 25 Ibe Hautekiet
  4. 20 Ibrahim Karamoko
  5. 13 Marlon Fossey
  6. 84 Rayan Touzghar
  7. 22 Alexis Trouillet
  8. 94 Casper Nielsen
  9. 11 Adnane Abid
  10. 10 Dennis Eckert Ayensa
  11. 17 Bernard Nguene

Bench: Tobias Mohr, Andi Zeqiri, Salieu Drammeh, Henry Lawrence, Lucas Pirard, Marco Ilaimaharitra, Daan Dierckx, Bruny Nsimba, Ryan Fosso

Charleroi lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Mohamed Koné
  2. 24 Mardochee Nzita
  3. 95 Cheick Keita
  4. 4 Aiham Ousou
  5. 3 Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
  6. 18 Yassine Khalifi
  7. 6 Amine Boukamir
  8. 20 Freddy Mbemba
  9. 8 Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
  10. 14 Patrick Pflücke
  11. 21 Aurélien Scheidler

Bench: Martin Delavallée, Triston Rowe, Adama Bojang, Gaku Nawata, Isaac Ismaël Cissé, Antoine Colassin, Noah Solheid, Massamba Sow, Mory Kera

Standard Liege vs Charleroi head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Standard Liege 3 · draws 3 · Charleroi 4.

Standard LiegeDrawsCharleroi
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23Standard Liege0-2CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2026-04-18Charleroi1-2Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2026-01-18Charleroi2-0Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2025-10-31Standard Liege3-1CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2025-05-04Standard Liege0-1CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2025-04-06Charleroi1-0Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2024-11-30Charleroi1-1Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2024-10-20Standard Liege2-1CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2023-12-16Standard Liege0-0CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2023-08-13Charleroi1-1Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match