KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden: model vs market
| Source | KV Mechelen | Draw | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Truiden below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Truiden, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 3.20 | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| St. Truiden | 2.05 | 2.20 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KV Mechelen and St. Truiden expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (KV Mechelen / St. Truiden)
- 0.66 / 1.12
- Defence rating (KV Mechelen / St. Truiden)
- 1.42 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KV Mechelen goals. Columns: St. Truiden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KV Mechelen | 28% | 3.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| St. Truiden | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KV Mechelen or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or St. Truiden) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win by 2+ | 34% | 2.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
KV Mechelen and St. Truiden recent form
KV Mechelen
0W 3D 3L
St. Truiden
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KV Mechelen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Truiden away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: KV Mechelen at home only, St. Truiden away only.
Expected lineups
KV Mechelen lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 13 Nacho Miras
- 3 José Marsà
- 44 Mike Eerdhuijzen
- 20 Kobe Corbanie
- 7 Thérence Koudou
- 30 Marco Decherf
- 6 Fredrik Hammar
- 23 Simion Michez
- 9 Myron Van Brederode
- 14 Benito Raman
- 28 Bouke Boersma
Bench: Ortwin De Wolf, Luc Marijnissen, Gora Diouf, Maxim Kireev, Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne, Malcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi, Halil Özdemir, Dennis Praet, Bill Antonio
St. Truiden lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 16 Léo Kokubo
- 3 Taiga Hata
- 4 Kota Takai
- 5 Shogo Taniguchi
- 60 Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
- 8 Abdoulaye Sissako
- 14 Ryan Merlen
- 10 Ilias Sebaoui
- 71 Ryotaro Araki
- 38 Kaito Matsuzawa
- 9 Samed Baždar
Bench: Nathanaël Mbuku, Nelson Ishiwatari, Frederic Soelle Soelle, Matt Lendfers, Wolke Janssens, Joedrick Pupe, Visar Musliu, Oumar Diouf, Shion Shinkawa
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KV Mechelen 0 · draws 1 · St. Truiden 9.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | St. Truiden | 3-0 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-04-26 | KV Mechelen | 1-4 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-12-21 | St. Truiden | 1-0 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-10-04 | KV Mechelen | 1-3 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-02-21 | KV Mechelen | 1-1 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-11-08 | St. Truiden | 2-1 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-05-12 | St. Truiden | 2-1 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-04-05 | KV Mechelen | 2-3 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-12-03 | KV Mechelen | 0-2 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-09-17 | St. Truiden | 2-0 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
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Before and after this match
- KV Mechelen, next: KV Mechelen – Genk, 2026-10-31
- St. Truiden, next: St. Truiden – FC Iberia 1999, 2026-10-15