Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 9

Genk vs Standard Liege

· Cegeka Arena, Genk· Referee J. Vergoote

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Genk to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GenkDrawStandard Liege

Genk vs Standard Liege: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGenkDrawStandard Liege
Model50%27%24%
Market54%24%22%
Published53%25%22%
Edge-1%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.08.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Genk vs Standard Liege odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Genk, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.75Now 1.75 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Genk1.751.75+0.00
Draw3.763.85+0.09
Standard Liege4.334.35+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Genk and Standard Liege expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Genk
1.08Standard Liege
Total expected goals
2.74
Attack rating (Genk / Standard Liege)
1.18 / 1.08
Defence rating (Genk / Standard Liege)
0.79 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Genk vs Standard Liege score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 5.8% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 1 9.6% 12.8% 6.3% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.9% 9.6% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 3 4.9% 5.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 2.9% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Genk goals. Columns: Standard Liege goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Genk vs Standard Liege goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Genk vs Standard Liege

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Genk53%1.89
Draw25%3.99
Standard Liege22%4.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.94
Under 2.548%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.20
Double chance1X (Genk or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Standard Liege)47%2.12
Handicap -1Genk win by 2+27%3.69
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Genk and Standard Liege recent form

Genk 3W 2D 1L
Standard Liege 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Genk at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Standard Liege away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Genk at home only, Standard Liege away only.

Expected lineups

Genk lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 Lucca Brughmans
  2. 18 Joris Kayembe
  3. 44 Josue Ndenge Kongolo
  4. 6 Matte Smets
  5. 20 Kevin Amaro
  6. 8 Bryan Heynen
  7. 4 Benjamin Tahirović
  8. 32 Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
  9. 38 Daan Heymans
  10. 10 Junya Ito
  11. 17 Rafiu Durosinmi

Bench: Tobe Leysen, Christiaan Ravych, Jeppe Erenbjerg, Yaimar Medina, Ibrahima Sory Bangoura, Aaron Bibout, Milan Roganović, Ayumu Yokoyama, August De Wannemacker

Standard Liege lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Matthieu Epolo
  2. 7 Tobias Mohr
  3. 4 Dimitri Lavalėe
  4. 25 Ibe Hautekiet
  5. 13 Marlon Fossey
  6. 80 Ryan Fosso
  7. 22 Alexis Trouillet
  8. 20 Ibrahim Karamoko
  9. 11 Adnane Abid
  10. 10 Dennis Eckert Ayensa
  11. 15 Salieu Drammeh

Bench: Gustav Mortensen, Andi Zeqiri, Henry Lawrence, Sylvester Jasper, Lucas Pirard, Marco Ilaimaharitra, Daan Dierckx, Bruny Nsimba, Rayan Touzghar

Genk vs Standard Liege head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Genk 3 · draws 3 · Standard Liege 4.

GenkDrawsStandard Liege
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Standard Liege0-0GenkJupiler Pro League
2026-04-25Genk1-1Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2026-02-22Genk0-3Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2025-08-10Standard Liege2-1GenkJupiler Pro League
2025-02-14Standard Liege1-2GenkJupiler Pro League
2024-12-04Genk2-1Standard LiegeBelgium Cup
2024-07-28Genk0-0Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2024-03-10Genk1-0Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
2023-11-25Standard Liege1-0GenkJupiler Pro League
2023-04-09Standard Liege2-0GenkJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match