Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 9

OH Leuven vs Lommel United

· Den Dreef, Heverlee· Referee J. Boterberg

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was OH Leuven to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
OH LeuvenDrawLommel United

OH Leuven vs Lommel United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOH LeuvenDrawLommel United
Model32%30%38%
Market50%25%25%
Published45%26%29%
Edge-4%+1%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

OH Leuven vs Lommel United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on OH Leuven, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-22.

Opened 1.90Now 1.90 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
OH Leuven1.901.90+0.00
Draw3.753.75+0.00
Lommel United3.573.70+0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

OH Leuven and Lommel United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15OH Leuven
1.27Lommel United
Total expected goals
2.43
Attack rating (OH Leuven / Lommel United)
0.77 / 1.02
Defence rating (OH Leuven / Lommel United)
1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

OH Leuven vs Lommel United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 9.9% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 1 8.9% 14.3% 8.2% 3.5% 1.5% 2 5.9% 7.5% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 3 2.3% 2.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: OH Leuven goals. Columns: Lommel United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

OH Leuven vs Lommel United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for OH Leuven vs Lommel United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2OH Leuven45%2.21
Draw26%3.80
Lommel United29%3.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.29
Under 2.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.98
No49%2.02
Double chance1X (OH Leuven or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Lommel United)55%1.82
Handicap -1OH Leuven win by 2+14%7.30
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

OH Leuven and Lommel United recent form

OH Leuven 2W 2D 2L
Lommel United 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

OH Leuven at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lommel United away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: OH Leuven at home only, Lommel United away only.

OH Leuven vs Lommel United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: OH Leuven 8 · draws 0 · Lommel United 2.

OH LeuvenDrawsLommel United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-15OH Leuven5-1Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs
2020-02-08OH Leuven3-0Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2019-12-06Lommel United3-2OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
2019-10-20Lommel United0-2OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
2019-09-22OH Leuven1-0Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2019-04-26OH Leuven1-0Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2019-03-22Lommel United0-2OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
2019-01-27Lommel United2-3OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
2018-12-04OH Leuven1-2Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
2018-12-01OH Leuven3-1Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match