Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 9

Antwerp vs Charleroi

· Bosuilstadion, Antwerp· Referee W. Smet

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Charleroi to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 2

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AntwerpDrawCharleroi

Antwerp vs Charleroi: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAntwerpDrawCharleroi
Model13%22%65%
Market24%24%52%
Published21%24%55%
Edge-3%-1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Charleroi below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Antwerp vs Charleroi odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Charleroi, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-22.

Opened 1.77Now 1.80 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Antwerp3.923.95+0.03
Draw3.853.84-0.01
Charleroi1.771.80+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Antwerp and Charleroi expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.81Antwerp
2.06Charleroi
Total expected goals
2.88
Attack rating (Antwerp / Charleroi)
0.89 / 1.17
Defence rating (Antwerp / Charleroi)
1.41 / 0.61

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Antwerp vs Charleroi score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 10.7% 12.0% 8.2% 6.8% 1 3.6% 10.4% 9.8% 6.7% 5.6% 2 1.9% 3.9% 4.0% 2.7% 2.3% 3 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Antwerp goals. Columns: Charleroi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Antwerp vs Charleroi goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Antwerp vs Charleroi

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Antwerp21%4.77
Draw24%4.22
Charleroi55%1.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.21
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.02
No50%1.98
Double chance1X (Antwerp or draw)45%2.24
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Charleroi)79%1.27
Handicap -1Charleroi win by 2+42%2.39
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Antwerp and Charleroi recent form

Antwerp 1W 0D 5L
Charleroi 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Antwerp at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Charleroi away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Antwerp at home only, Charleroi away only.

Expected lineups

Antwerp lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 41 Taishi Brandon Nozawa
  2. 5 Daam Foulon
  3. 3 Álvaro Cortés
  4. 20 Rein Van Helden
  5. 17 Semm Renders
  6. 48 Arthur Vermeeren
  7. 6 Bahmed Deuff
  8. 7 Ibrahim Salah
  9. 24 Thibo Somers
  10. 80 Carlos Mejia
  11. 30 Snayder Porozo

Bench: Yuto Tsunashima, Michael Frey, Christopher Scott, Xander Dierckx, Modibo Fofana, Luca Schelfhout, Youssef Hamdaoui, Maxime Busi, Niels Devalckeneer

Charleroi lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Mohamed Koné
  2. 24 Mardochee Nzita
  3. 95 Cheick Keita
  4. 4 Aiham Ousou
  5. 3 Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
  6. 18 Yassine Khalifi
  7. 6 Amine Boukamir
  8. 20 Freddy Mbemba
  9. 8 Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
  10. 14 Patrick Pflücke
  11. 21 Aurélien Scheidler

Bench: Martin Delavallée, Triston Rowe, Adama Bojang, Gaku Nawata, Isaac Ismaël Cissé, Boubakar Dembaga, Antoine Colassin, Noah Solheid, Mory Kera

Antwerp vs Charleroi head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Antwerp 3 · draws 1 · Charleroi 6.

AntwerpDrawsCharleroi
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Antwerp0-1CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2026-04-10Charleroi2-1AntwerpJupiler Pro League
2026-01-25Antwerp0-2CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2025-08-17Charleroi1-1AntwerpJupiler Pro League
2025-05-29Antwerp1-2CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2024-12-08Antwerp1-3CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2024-07-28Charleroi0-1AntwerpJupiler Pro League
2024-01-21Antwerp4-1CharleroiJupiler Pro League
2023-12-06Antwerp5-2CharleroiCup
2023-10-21Charleroi3-2AntwerpJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match