Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff

· Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton· Referee Josh Smith

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Wolverhampton Wanderers to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wolverhampton WanderersDrawCardiff

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWolverhampton WanderersDrawCardiff
Model43%27%31%
Market56%22%21%
Published53%23%24%
Edge-3%+1%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.60Now 1.67 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.601.67+0.07
Draw4.254.20-0.05
Cardiff4.704.45-0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Cardiff expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.33Cardiff
Total expected goals
2.94
Attack rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Cardiff)
1.03 / 1.26
Defence rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Cardiff)
0.86 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 5.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.9% 1 7.4% 12.5% 7.5% 3.3% 1.5% 2 6.9% 9.1% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 3 3.7% 4.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.1% 2.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Columns: Cardiff goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wolverhampton Wanderers53%1.89
Draw23%4.26
Cardiff24%4.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.29
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.50
Double chance1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)77%1.31
X2 (draw or Cardiff)47%2.13
Handicap -1Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+22%4.45
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Cardiff recent form

Wolverhampton Wanderers 3W 1D 2L
Cardiff 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wolverhampton Wanderers at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cardiff away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home only, Cardiff away only.

Injuries & availability

Wolverhampton Wanderers absences

  • B. Traore injury
  • B. Traore injury
  • F. Lopez calf injury
  • G. Konan knee injury
  • N. Djiga groin injury
  • R. Jimenez knee injury

Cardiff absences

  • C. Chambers knee injury
  • C. Robinson inactive
  • D. Lawlor hamstring injury
  • G. Osho suspended
  • K. Bielik inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Wolverhampton Wanderers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 José Sá
  2. 3 Hugo Bueno
  3. 37 L. Krejčí
  4. 15 Y. Mosquera
  5. 2 K. Trippier
  6. 5 M. Munetsi
  7. 7 André
  8. 19 R. Saïd
  9. 8 J. James
  10. 28 Fer López
  11. 10 A. Armstrong

Bench: João Virgínia, S. Neave, T. Doyle, Rodrigo Gomes, T. Chirewa, Toti Gomes, J. Bellegarde, M. Mane, J. Tchatchoua

Cardiff lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Trott
  2. 38 P. Ng
  3. 2 W. Fish
  4. 3 J. Bagan
  5. 23 C. Scanlon
  6. 18 A. Robertson
  7. 8 J. Moylan
  8. 11 O. Tanner
  9. 27 J. Colwill
  10. 16 C. Willock
  11. 9 Y. Salech

Bench: R. Colwill, D. Turnbull, H. Tyrer, R. Tankiewicz, N. Anyadike, P. Moreno, R. Kpakio, Cian Ashford

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Wolverhampton Wanderers 5 · draws 0 · Cardiff 5.

Wolverhampton WanderersDrawsCardiff
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2019-03-02Wolverhampton Wanderers2-0CardiffPremier League
2018-11-30Cardiff2-1Wolverhampton WanderersPremier League
2018-04-06Cardiff0-1Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2017-08-19Wolverhampton Wanderers1-2CardiffChampionship
2017-04-01Wolverhampton Wanderers3-1CardiffChampionship
2016-12-13Cardiff2-1Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2016-01-16Wolverhampton Wanderers1-3CardiffChampionship
2015-08-22Cardiff2-0Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2015-02-28Cardiff0-1Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2014-08-23Wolverhampton Wanderers1-0CardiffChampionship

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match