Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Bolton vs Bristol City

· Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich· Referee Bobby Madley

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Bristol City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BoltonDrawBristol City

Bolton vs Bristol City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBoltonDrawBristol City
Model38%30%32%
Market31%27%42%
Published33%28%39%
Edge+2%+1%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bolton vs Bristol City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bristol City, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.35Now 2.25 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bolton2.723.00+0.28
Draw3.503.45-0.05
Bristol City2.352.25-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bolton and Bristol City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Bolton
1.15Bristol City
Total expected goals
2.43
Attack rating (Bolton / Bristol City)
1.04 / 0.70
Defence rating (Bolton / Bristol City)
1.34 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bolton vs Bristol City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 8.8% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8% 1 10.0% 14.2% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 2 7.3% 8.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.7% 3 3.1% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Bolton goals. Columns: Bristol City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bolton vs Bristol City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bolton vs Bristol City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bolton33%3.03
Draw28%3.59
Bristol City39%2.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.28
Under 2.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Bolton or draw)61%1.64
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Bristol City)67%1.49
Handicap -1Bristol City win by 2+13%7.47
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bolton and Bristol City recent form

Bolton 3W 1D 2L
Bristol City 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bolton at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bristol City away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bolton at home only, Bristol City away only.

Injuries & availability

Bolton absences

  • C. Forino-Joseph groin injury
  • E. Erhahon thigh injury
  • J. McAtee knee injury
  • J. Nelson inactive
  • R. Hardie hamstring injury

Bristol City absences

  • E. Adebayo inactive
  • L. Tolaj health problems
  • N. Eile illness
  • R. Dickie knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bolton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Bonham
  2. 25 M. Conway
  3. 6 B. Davies
  4. 3 C. Forino-Joseph
  5. 22 Gaizka Larrazabal
  6. 8 J. Sheehan
  7. 4 X. Simons
  8. 11 T. Gale
  9. 17 A. Ito
  10. 16 S. Iling-Junior
  11. 10 S. Dalby

Bench: L. Brunt, K. Dong, T. Bair, D. Watson, A. Famewo, Ruben Rodrigues, D. Harrington, Luca Stephenson, Max Lott

Bristol City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 40 B. Collins
  2. 3 C. Pring
  3. 2 L. Eissat
  4. 15 L. McNally
  5. 19 G. Tanner
  6. 6 B. De Keersmaecker
  7. 12 J. Knight
  8. 8 J. Williams
  9. 23 D. Ballard
  10. 21 Rio Cardines
  11. 9 L. Tolaj

Bench: S. Tickle, A. Randell, R. Atkinson, Y. Hirakawa, S. Twine, S. Bell, T. Horvat, J. Wallace, S. Greenwood

Bolton vs Bristol City head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Bolton 3 · draws 2 · Bristol City 4.

BoltonDrawsBristol City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2019-01-25Bristol City2-1BoltonFA Cup
2019-01-12Bristol City2-1BoltonChampionship
2018-08-11Bolton2-2Bristol CityChampionship
2018-02-02Bolton1-0Bristol CityChampionship
2017-09-26Bristol City2-0BoltonChampionship
2016-03-19Bristol City6-0BoltonChampionship
2015-11-07Bolton0-0Bristol CityChampionship
2013-04-13Bristol City1-2BoltonChampionship
2012-10-20Bolton3-2Bristol CityChampionship

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match