Middlesbrough vs Charlton: model vs market
| Source | Middlesbrough | Draw | Charlton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Published | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Middlesbrough, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.27 | 1.24 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 5.70 | 6.20 | +0.50 |
| Charlton | 8.84 | 10.50 | +1.66 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Middlesbrough and Charlton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Middlesbrough / Charlton)
- 1.56 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Middlesbrough / Charlton)
- 1.09 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Middlesbrough goals. Columns: Charlton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Middlesbrough vs Charlton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 76% | 1.32 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.60 | |
| Charlton | 9% | 10.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Middlesbrough or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Charlton) | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win by 2+ | 56% | 1.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Middlesbrough and Charlton recent form
Middlesbrough
3W 3D 0L
Charlton
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Middlesbrough at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Middlesbrough at home only, Charlton away only.
Injuries & availability
Middlesbrough absences
-
A. Jones
calf injury
- D. Strelec injury
- R. Pukstas injury
Charlton absences
-
C. Sichenje
knee injury
-
M. Godden
muscle injury
-
N. Chalobah
muscle injury
- R. Apter knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Middlesbrough lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 R. Vítek
- 30 Neto Borges
- 29 A. Malanda
- 4 A. Phillips
- 2 C. Brittain
- 6 S. Berhalter
- 10 A. Morris
- 9 T. Conway
- 8 R. McGree
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 7 W. Lankshear
Bench: S. Byram, L. Ayling, D. Strelec, M. Peart-Harris, J. Sarmiento, M. Arfsten, Leo Castledine, K. Joseph, S. Brynn
Charlton lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 44 Tyler Bindon
- 12 Billy Dawson Koumetio
- 5 L. Jones
- 17 A. Bell
- 34 O. Skipp
- 8 H. Knibbs
- 2 K. Ramsay
- 23 C. Kelman
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello
- 11 M. Leaburn
Bench: C. Coventry, T. Campbell, K. Ahearne-Grant, S. Carey, N. Chalobah, I. Mesík, M. Alli, D. McNamara, W. Mannion
Middlesbrough vs Charlton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Middlesbrough 7 · draws 1 · Charlton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Middlesbrough | 0-1 | Charlton | England Championship |
| 2025-12-09 | Charlton | 1-2 | Middlesbrough | England Championship |
| 2020-03-07 | Charlton | 0-1 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2019-12-07 | Middlesbrough | 1-0 | Charlton | Championship |
| 2016-03-13 | Charlton | 2-0 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2015-10-31 | Middlesbrough | 3-0 | Charlton | Championship |
| 2015-02-07 | Middlesbrough | 3-1 | Charlton | Championship |
| 2014-09-27 | Charlton | 0-0 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2014-01-18 | Middlesbrough | 1-0 | Charlton | Championship |
| 2013-08-10 | Charlton | 0-1 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham 2026-10-30
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Stoke City vs Preston — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lincoln vs Birmingham 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Middlesbrough, previous: Bolton – Middlesbrough, 2026-10-23
- Middlesbrough, next: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: odds and pick
- Charlton, previous: Charlton vs Norwich: odds and pick
- Charlton, next: Charlton vs Bolton: odds and pick