Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham

· Bramall Lane, Sheffield· Referee David Webb

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Sheffield Utd to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sheffield UtdDrawWrexham

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSheffield UtdDrawWrexham
Model51%26%23%
Market41%28%32%
Published43%27%29%
Edge+3%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.08.
  • The market prices Sheffield Utd below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Utd, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 2.45Now 2.30 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sheffield Utd2.452.30-0.15
Draw3.303.40+0.10
Wrexham2.702.98+0.27

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sheffield Utd and Wrexham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Sheffield Utd
1.08Wrexham
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (Sheffield Utd / Wrexham)
1.03 / 0.97
Defence rating (Sheffield Utd / Wrexham)
0.92 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 5.4% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 1 9.3% 12.4% 6.1% 2.2% 0.8% 2 9.0% 9.7% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7% 3 5.1% 5.6% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 3.3% 3.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Sheffield Utd goals. Columns: Wrexham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sheffield Utd43%2.31
Draw27%3.67
Wrexham29%3.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.14
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.80
No45%2.25
Double chance1X (Sheffield Utd or draw)71%1.42
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Wrexham)57%1.77
Handicap -1Sheffield Utd win by 2+29%3.49
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sheffield Utd and Wrexham recent form

Sheffield Utd 2W 1D 3L
Wrexham 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sheffield Utd at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.

Wrexham away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-2
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sheffield Utd at home only, Wrexham away only.

Injuries & availability

Sheffield Utd absences

  • J. Shackleton health problems
  • M. Doherty injury
  • P. Bamford inactive
  • R. One inactive

Wrexham absences

  • G. Thomason thigh injury
  • J. Windass ankle injury
  • L. Cacace calf injury
  • M. Cleworth muscle injury
  • N. Broadhead thigh injury
  • S. Revan hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sheffield Utd lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Cooper
  2. 14 H. Burrows
  3. 15 L. Kitching
  4. 5 J. Tanganga
  5. 8 H. Choudhury
  6. 27 K. Phillips
  7. 42 Sydie Peck
  8. 22 B. Brereton
  9. 11 R. Donovan
  10. 19 T. Chong
  11. 10 J. Ayew

Bench: S. McCallum, O. Arblaster, J. Rothwell, T. Cannon, T. Campbell, M. McGuinness, F. Seriki, J. Riedewald

Wrexham lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 22 A. Patterson
  2. 2 C. Doyle
  3. 6 J. Worrall
  4. 5 D. Hyam
  5. 3 J. Ekomié
  6. 37 M. James
  7. 18 B. Sheaf
  8. 12 I. Kaboré
  9. 27 L. O'Brien
  10. 20 O. Rathbone
  11. 19 K. Moore

Bench: M. Cleworth, B. Whiteman, B. Cadamarteri, G. Thomason, G. Dobson, D. Ward, Z. Vyner, S. Smith, Daniel Edward Peter Imray

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sheffield Utd 2 · draws 1 · Wrexham 2.

Sheffield UtdDrawsWrexham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Sheffield Utd1-2WrexhamEngland Championship
2025-12-26Wrexham5-3Sheffield UtdEngland Championship
2024-08-13Sheffield Utd4-2WrexhamLeague Cup
2023-02-07Sheffield Utd3-1WrexhamFA Cup
2023-01-29Wrexham3-3Sheffield UtdFA Cup

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match