Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven, the model gives PSV Eindhoven a 63% chance of winning, compared to Cambuur's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. The expected goals for Cambuur are 1.60, while PSV Eindhoven's expected goals stand at 1.93.
While the data heavily favors PSV Eindhoven, recent form could challenge this prediction. Cambuur has shown resilience with a record of W-W-W-D-W-D, while PSV Eindhoven has had mixed results with W-D-W-L-L-W. The model indicates a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability for both teams to score, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match.
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven: model vs market
| Source | Cambuur | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 15% | 17% | 68% |
| Published | 19% | 19% | 63% |
| Edge | +4% | +2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.60.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 7.70 | 6.35 | -1.35 |
| Draw | 5.55 | 5.50 | -0.05 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.31 | 1.36 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Cambuur / PSV Eindhoven)
- 1.30 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Cambuur / PSV Eindhoven)
- 0.88 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cambuur goals. Columns: PSV Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cambuur | 19% | 5.32 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.37 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cambuur or draw) | 37% | 2.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or PSV Eindhoven) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win by 2+ | 26% | 3.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven recent form
Cambuur
4W 2D 0L
PSV Eindhoven
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cambuur at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PSV Eindhoven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cambuur at home only, PSV Eindhoven away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar 2026-11-07
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
- Heerenveen v Feyenoord — match page 2026-11-08
- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Cambuur, previous: Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles prediction
- PSV Eindhoven, previous: PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge KV, 2026-11-04