Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen, Utrecht has a 42% probability of winning compared to NEC Nijmegen's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance, while both teams scoring stands at 72%, aligning with the high expected goals of 2.04 for Utrecht and 1.73 for NEC Nijmegen.
Utrecht's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while NEC Nijmegen has drawn 4 of their last 6. Despite Utrecht's favorable head-to-head record of 2 wins against NEC Nijmegen's 0, the confidence grade is only C. This indicates potential uncertainty, as NEC Nijmegen's ability to secure a draw could disrupt Utrecht's expected performance.
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: model vs market
| Source | Utrecht | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Utrecht, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 2.30 | 2.38 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.80 | +0.05 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 2.71 | 2.62 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Utrecht / NEC Nijmegen)
- 1.01 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Utrecht / NEC Nijmegen)
- 1.25 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Utrecht goals. Columns: NEC Nijmegen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Utrecht or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or NEC Nijmegen) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen recent form
Utrecht
3W 1D 2L
NEC Nijmegen
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Utrecht at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEC Nijmegen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Utrecht at home only, NEC Nijmegen away only.
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Utrecht 2 · draws 0 · NEC Nijmegen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | NEC Nijmegen | 1-3 | Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| 2025-11-02 | Utrecht | 1-0 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
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- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Utrecht, previous: Telstar vs Utrecht: odds and pick
- NEC Nijmegen, previous: NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction