AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen, AZ Alkmaar has a 59% probability of winning, while Groningen sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Despite AZ Alkmaar's higher expected goals at 2.08 compared to Groningen's 1.38, recent form shows AZ with two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance.
Additionally, both teams have a high likelihood of scoring, with our model indicating a 66% chance for both teams to find the net. However, Groningen's recent form includes two wins in their last three games, suggesting they could pose a challenge. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: model vs market
| Source | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Published | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.38.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.52 | 1.52 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.62 | 4.60 | -0.03 |
| Groningen | 5.28 | 5.32 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (AZ Alkmaar / Groningen)
- 0.98 / 1.15
- Defence rating (AZ Alkmaar / Groningen)
- 0.79 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AZ Alkmaar goals. Columns: Groningen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Groningen | 19% | 5.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AZ Alkmaar or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Groningen) | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win by 2+ | 34% | 2.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen recent form
AZ Alkmaar
2W 1D 3L
Groningen
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AZ Alkmaar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Groningen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar at home only, Groningen away only.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 1 · draws 0 · Groningen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Groningen | 3-0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 2025-08-10 | AZ Alkmaar | 4-1 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar 2026-11-07
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
- Heerenveen v Feyenoord — match page 2026-11-08
- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- AZ Alkmaar, previous: AZ Alkmaar – Juventus, 2026-11-05
- Groningen, previous: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction