Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles preview
Excelsior faces GO Ahead Eagles with probabilities of 38% for Excelsior to win and 39% for GO Ahead Eagles. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 6%. The match could deviate from this forecast if Excelsior improves their recent form, which shows 1 win in their last 6 matches.
The expected goals for Excelsior stand at 2.47, while GO Ahead Eagles have an expected goals figure of 1.94. Both teams have a high likelihood of scoring, with our model indicating an 79% chance for both teams to find the net. Despite Excelsior's recent struggles, their attacking potential could lead to a more competitive match than anticipated.
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles: model vs market
| Source | Excelsior | Draw | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 19% | 51% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 2.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices GO Ahead Eagles below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles odds movement
Median bookmaker price on GO Ahead Eagles, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.71 | 2.70 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.66 | -0.14 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | 2.25 | 2.41 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.88
- Attack rating (Excelsior / GO Ahead Eagles)
- 0.90 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Excelsior / GO Ahead Eagles)
- 1.47 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Excelsior goals. Columns: GO Ahead Eagles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 83%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 83% | 1.21 |
| No | 17% | 5.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Excelsior or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or GO Ahead Eagles) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | GO Ahead Eagles win by 2+ | 34% | 2.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles recent form
Excelsior
1W 1D 4L
GO Ahead Eagles
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Excelsior at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GO Ahead Eagles away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Excelsior at home only, GO Ahead Eagles away only.
Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Excelsior 0 · draws 0 · GO Ahead Eagles 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Excelsior | 0-1 | GO Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-26 | GO Ahead Eagles | 2-0 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar 2026-11-07
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Heerenveen v Feyenoord — match page 2026-11-08
- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Excelsior, previous: Excelsior v Twente analysis
- GO Ahead Eagles, previous: Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles prediction