Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Fortuna Sittard and Telstar, Fortuna Sittard has a 48% probability of winning compared to Telstar's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 10% of the time in our model. Fortuna Sittard's expected goals stand at 1.99, significantly higher than Telstar's 1.30, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Fortuna Sittard has recorded a mixed bag of results with D-W-D-D-W-L, while Telstar has struggled, with L-L-L-D-L-D in their last six matches. This disparity in form could lead to unexpected results despite the statistical edge for Fortuna Sittard.
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar: model vs market
| Source | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Telstar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fortuna Sittard, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 2.01 | 2.01 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.62 | +0.10 |
| Telstar | 3.48 | 3.37 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fortuna Sittard and Telstar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Fortuna Sittard / Telstar)
- 0.94 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Fortuna Sittard / Telstar)
- 0.97 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortuna Sittard goals. Columns: Telstar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Telstar | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortuna Sittard or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Telstar) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Sittard win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fortuna Sittard and Telstar recent form
Fortuna Sittard
2W 4D 0L
Telstar
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortuna Sittard at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Telstar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard at home only, Telstar away only.
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 2 · draws 3 · Telstar 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Fortuna Sittard | 1-4 | Telstar | Eredivisie |
| 2025-09-14 | Telstar | 1-3 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 2018-02-16 | Fortuna Sittard | 1-1 | Telstar | Eerste Divisie |
| 2017-09-29 | Telstar | 0-6 | Fortuna Sittard | Eerste Divisie |
| 2017-01-20 | Fortuna Sittard | 1-1 | Telstar | Eerste Divisie |
| 2016-08-12 | Telstar | 1-1 | Fortuna Sittard | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
- Heerenveen v Feyenoord — match page 2026-11-08
- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Fortuna Sittard, previous: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard prediction
- Telstar, previous: Telstar vs Utrecht: odds and pick