Heerenveen vs Feyenoord preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Heerenveen and Feyenoord, the probabilities indicate a 50% chance of a Feyenoord victory compared to 27% for Heerenveen. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. This suggests that Feyenoord is favored to secure the win, although Heerenveen's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge this outcome.
The model also forecasts a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance that both teams will score. Heerenveen has an expected goals figure of 1.60, while Feyenoord sits at 1.43. Given the close expected goals and the recent form of both teams, the match could yield a competitive contest, potentially impacting the predicted scoreline.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord: model vs market
| Source | Heerenveen | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Published | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Edge | +7% | +1% | -7% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Feyenoord, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 4.00 | 4.20 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.31 | +0.06 |
| Feyenoord | 1.71 | 1.69 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heerenveen and Feyenoord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Heerenveen / Feyenoord)
- 1.04 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Heerenveen / Feyenoord)
- 0.70 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heerenveen goals. Columns: Feyenoord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 29% | 3.46 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Feyenoord | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heerenveen or draw) | 52% | 1.94 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Feyenoord) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win by 2+ | 12% | 8.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Heerenveen and Feyenoord recent form
Heerenveen
5W 0D 1L
Feyenoord
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heerenveen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Feyenoord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Heerenveen at home only, Feyenoord away only.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Heerenveen 1 · draws 1 · Feyenoord 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Heerenveen | 2-2 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 2025-12-17 | Feyenoord | 2-3 | Heerenveen | KNVB Beker |
| 2025-09-13 | Feyenoord | 1-0 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar 2026-11-07
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Heerenveen, previous: Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen analysis
- Feyenoord, previous: Feyenoord v Inter analysis