Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 12

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

· WerkTalent Stadion, Den Haag

TipsterGrid prediction ADO Den Haag to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ADO Den HaagDrawSparta Rotterdam
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — ADO Den Haag is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
ADO Den Haag2.52 Draw3.70 Sparta Rotterdam2.80

Price as of

Expected return at 2.52: +1.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam preview

In the Eredivisie fixture between ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam, ADO Den Haag has a 44% probability of winning, while Sparta Rotterdam stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 8% chance. ADO Den Haag's expected goals are 2.45 compared to Sparta Rotterdam's 1.67, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.

However, the recent form shows ADO Den Haag with a record of D-L-W-D-D-L, and Sparta Rotterdam at D-L-W-D-L-L. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, as both teams have shown vulnerabilities. Additionally, the model predicts a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 75%, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match.

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceADO Den HaagDrawSparta Rotterdam
Model44%23%33%
Market39%26%35%
Published40%25%35%
Edge+1%-1%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam odds movement

Median bookmaker price on ADO Den Haag, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.30Now 2.42 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
ADO Den Haag2.302.42+0.12
Draw3.603.60+0.00
Sparta Rotterdam2.702.69-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.06ADO Den Haag
1.77Sparta Rotterdam
Total expected goals
3.83
Attack rating (ADO Den Haag / Sparta Rotterdam)
0.85 / 1.10
Defence rating (ADO Den Haag / Sparta Rotterdam)
1.06 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 1 3.7% 8.7% 7.0% 4.1% 2.7% 2 4.6% 8.1% 7.2% 4.3% 2.8% 3 3.2% 5.6% 5.0% 2.9% 1.9% 4+ 2.6% 4.6% 4.1% 2.4% 1.6%

Rows: ADO Den Haag goals. Columns: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ADO Den Haag40%2.48
Draw25%3.96
Sparta Rotterdam35%2.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.36
Under 2.526%3.79
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.73
Double chance1X (ADO Den Haag or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Sparta Rotterdam)60%1.67
Handicap -1ADO Den Haag win by 2+26%3.89
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam recent form

ADO Den Haag 1W 3D 2L
Sparta Rotterdam 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ADO Den Haag at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sparta Rotterdam away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: ADO Den Haag at home only, Sparta Rotterdam away only.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot ADO Den Haag to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on ADO Den Haag
Our pick: ADO Den Haag to win 18+ Bet Now