Willem II vs PEC Zwolle preview
Willem II faces PEC Zwolle with a 34% chance of winning compared to Zwolle's 42%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.06 for Willem II and 1.83 for PEC Zwolle. This suggests a competitive match with both teams likely to find the net, as indicated by the model's 74% probability for both teams to score.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Willem II has lost five of their last six matches, while PEC Zwolle has managed only one win in their last six. This discrepancy in form may impact the predicted scoreline, making the match less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: model vs market
| Source | Willem II | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Published | 33% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.63.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PEC Zwolle, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 3.05 | 2.77 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.70 | -0.07 |
| PEC Zwolle | 2.10 | 2.30 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Willem II and PEC Zwolle expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Willem II / PEC Zwolle)
- 0.83 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Willem II / PEC Zwolle)
- 1.83 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Willem II goals. Columns: PEC Zwolle goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Willem II | 33% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| PEC Zwolle | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Willem II or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or PEC Zwolle) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | PEC Zwolle win by 2+ | 29% | 3.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Willem II and PEC Zwolle recent form
Willem II
1W 0D 5L
PEC Zwolle
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Willem II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 3.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
PEC Zwolle away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Willem II at home only, PEC Zwolle away only.
Injuries & availability
Willem II absences
-
A. Lachkar
groin injury
-
J. Hoogma
knee injury
PEC Zwolle absences
-
F. Krastev
achilles tendon injury
- G. Rahajaan inactive
-
S. Floranus
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Willem II 3 · draws 3 · PEC Zwolle 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-14 | Willem II | 1-2 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 2024-12-13 | PEC Zwolle | 0-1 | Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 2023-03-10 | Willem II | 2-3 | PEC Zwolle | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-09-09 | PEC Zwolle | 2-2 | Willem II | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-01-14 | PEC Zwolle | 2-0 | Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 2021-08-28 | Willem II | 1-0 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 2021-01-22 | Willem II | 1-3 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 2020-10-24 | PEC Zwolle | 0-0 | Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 2020-01-26 | Willem II | 0-0 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 2019-08-02 | PEC Zwolle | 1-3 | Willem II | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar 2026-11-07
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
- Heerenveen v Feyenoord — match page 2026-11-08
- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Willem II, previous: PSV Eindhoven – Willem II, 2026-10-31
- PEC Zwolle, previous: PEC Zwolle – ADO Den Haag, 2026-11-01