Groningen vs Ajax: model vs market
| Source | Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 21% | 40% |
| Market | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Published | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Groningen vs Ajax odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 4.20 | 3.53 | -0.67 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.07 | -0.18 |
| Ajax | 1.70 | 1.85 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Groningen and Ajax expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.37
- Attack rating (Groningen / Ajax)
- 1.27 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Groningen / Ajax)
- 0.97 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Groningen vs Ajax score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Groningen goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Groningen vs Ajax goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Groningen vs Ajax
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 30% | 3.38 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Ajax | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Groningen or draw) | 52% | 1.92 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Ajax) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win by 2+ | 23% | 4.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Groningen and Ajax recent form
Groningen
2W 2D 2L
Ajax
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Groningen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
Ajax away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Groningen at home only, Ajax away only.
Injuries & availability
Groningen absences
- E. van der Laan injury
-
M. Jeng
leg injury
-
T. Hernes
injury
-
T. Mercera
injury
Ajax absences
- A. Gaaei injury
- Caio Henrique thigh injury
-
D. Blind
back injury
- K. Dolberg knee injury
- S. Berghuis injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Groningen lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 33 H. Hateboer
- 5 M. Rente
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 24 P. Clement
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 9 B. Willumsson
Bench: Wouter Prins, M. Csinger, T. Hernes, L. Štubljar, A. Nordin, T. Land, O. Zawada, Nils Eggens, P. Boevink, R. Metu, J. Mosselaar, Besnik Mashuku
Ajax lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 36 D. Janse
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 2 Lucas Rosa
- 24 J. Mokio
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 38 Marcos Leonardo
- 8 J. Brandt
Bench: T. Kehrer, V. Tsygankov, Y. Baas, Jofre Torrents, M. Paes, Y. Bissouma, Rayane Bounida, C. Setford, Mohamed Abdalla, A. Ouazane, T. Arokodare
Groningen vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Groningen 1 · draws 1 · Ajax 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Ajax | 2-0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2026-03-07 | Groningen | 3-1 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2025-12-02 | Ajax | 2-0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-05-14 | Groningen | 2-2 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2024-10-06 | Ajax | 3-1 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2023-05-16 | Groningen | 2-3 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2022-08-14 | Ajax | 6-1 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2022-04-02 | Groningen | 1-3 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2021-09-25 | Ajax | 3-0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2021-03-07 | Ajax | 3-1 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Heerenveen vs Excelsior — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven 2026-10-17
- Telstar vs Feyenoord — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II 2026-10-17
- PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles — match page 2026-10-18
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar 2026-10-18
- NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard — match page 2026-10-18
- Twente vs Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Groningen, previous: Excelsior – Groningen, 2026-10-11
- Groningen, next: NEC Nijmegen – Groningen, 2026-10-25
- Ajax, previous: HNK Hajduk Split – Ajax, 2026-10-15
- Ajax, next: Ajax v Atalanta analysis