Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 9

Twente vs Utrecht

· De Grolsch Veste, Enschede· Referee Allard Lindhout

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Twente to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TwenteDrawUtrecht

Twente vs Utrecht: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTwenteDrawUtrecht
Model74%15%11%
Market70%18%12%
Published71%17%12%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.00 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Twente vs Utrecht odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Twente, 32 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.30Now 1.35 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Twente1.301.35+0.05
Draw5.755.33-0.42
Utrecht7.907.58-0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Twente and Utrecht expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.00Twente
1.14Utrecht
Total expected goals
4.14
Attack rating (Twente / Utrecht)
1.18 / 1.09
Defence rating (Twente / Utrecht)
0.70 / 1.41

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Twente vs Utrecht score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1 4.2% 6.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 2 7.2% 8.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 3 7.2% 8.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 4+ 11.2% 12.8% 7.3% 2.8% 1.0%

Rows: Twente goals. Columns: Utrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Twente vs Utrecht goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Twente vs Utrecht

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Twente71%1.41
Draw17%5.88
Utrecht12%8.34
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.61
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.87
Double chance1X (Twente or draw)88%1.14
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Utrecht)29%3.45
Handicap -1Twente win by 2+56%1.80
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Twente and Utrecht recent form

Twente 4W 2D 0L
Utrecht 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Twente at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Utrecht away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Twente at home only, Utrecht away only.

Injuries & availability

Twente absences

  • L. Unnerstall inactive
  • M. Bruns inactive
  • S. Lemkin muscle injury

Utrecht absences

  • A. Engwanda hamstring injury
  • A. Stepanov ankle injury
  • K. Paredes knee injury
  • M. Jonathans knee injury
  • N. Ohio knee injury
  • V. Jensen knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Twente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 J. Drommel
  2. 29 A. Adelgaard
  3. 4 R. Nijstad
  4. 3 R. Pröpper
  5. 28 B. van Rooij
  6. 8 D. Weidmann
  7. 6 R. Zerrouki
  8. 27 S. Ørjasæter
  9. 14 K. Hlynsson
  10. 11 D. Rots
  11. 9 W. Weghorst

Bench: M. Rosiak, M. Pjaca, Y. Taha, F. Thorvaldsen, Jordy Bawuah, T. van den Belt, R. Pasveer, K. Kurowski, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink, Yannick Gerritsen, J. Meilink

Utrecht lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 22 S. Padt
  2. 5 N. Panagiotou
  3. 3 M. Didden
  4. 2 S. Horemans
  5. 92 A. Zagré
  6. 38 O. Agougil
  7. 8 J. van Overeem
  8. 23 N. Vesterlund
  9. 10 Y. Cathline
  10. 20 D. de Wit
  11. 11 Ángel Alarcón

Bench: G. Offerhaus, A. Blake, S. van Duijn, J. Medić, N. Ogidi Nwankwo, M. Eppink, P. Kloosterboer, K. Gadellaa, D. van den Berg, N. Amrabat, E. C. Owen

Twente vs Utrecht head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Twente 3 · draws 3 · Utrecht 4.

TwenteDrawsUtrecht
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Twente0-2UtrechtEredivisie
2026-01-13Utrecht1-2TwenteKNVB Beker
2025-12-07Utrecht1-1TwenteEredivisie
2025-05-11Twente2-0UtrechtEredivisie
2024-09-01Utrecht2-1TwenteEredivisie
2024-02-18Twente0-1UtrechtEredivisie
2023-11-05Utrecht1-1TwenteEredivisie
2023-04-16Utrecht1-0TwenteEredivisie
2023-01-22Twente2-0UtrechtEredivisie
2021-12-22Utrecht1-1TwenteEredivisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match