Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 9

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

· Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam· Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Sparta Rotterdam to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sparta RotterdamDrawWillem II

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSparta RotterdamDrawWillem II
Model50%23%28%
Market60%21%19%
Published57%22%21%
Edge-3%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.53.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sparta Rotterdam, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.55Now 1.57 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sparta Rotterdam1.551.57+0.02
Draw4.334.38+0.05
Willem II5.405.05-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.07Sparta Rotterdam
1.53Willem II
Total expected goals
3.60
Attack rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Willem II)
0.92 / 0.71
Defence rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Willem II)
1.44 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 1.6% 0.9% 1 4.8% 9.5% 6.6% 3.4% 1.8% 2 5.9% 9.0% 6.8% 3.5% 1.9% 3 4.1% 6.2% 4.7% 2.4% 1.3% 4+ 3.4% 5.2% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1%

Rows: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Columns: Willem II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sparta Rotterdam57%1.74
Draw22%4.58
Willem II21%4.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.31
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.26
Double chance1X (Sparta Rotterdam or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Willem II)43%2.34
Handicap -1Sparta Rotterdam win by 2+29%3.39
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II recent form

Sparta Rotterdam 0W 3D 3L
Willem II 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sparta Rotterdam at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.

Willem II away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam at home only, Willem II away only.

Injuries & availability

Sparta Rotterdam absences

  • M. van Bergen inactive
  • S. Mito injury

Willem II absences

  • A. Culum foot injury
  • A. Lachkar groin injury
  • J. Hoogma knee injury
  • K. Boogaard knock
  • T. Didillon Hodl hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sparta Rotterdam lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 M. Brouwer
  2. 5 B. Kuipers
  3. 4 B. Martins Indi
  4. 6 N. Verschuren
  5. 3 M. Young
  6. 2 L. Martes
  7. 11 I. Babadi
  8. 10 Cedric Hatenboer
  9. 8 J. Toornstra
  10. 7 Robin van Cruijsen
  11. 9 M. Zonneveld

Bench: B. Reith, Teo Quintero, G. Vianello, J. Baas, M. van Bergen, A. Roaldsøy, F. Bednarek

Willem II lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 M. Delanghe
  2. 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
  3. 23 M. Dekker
  4. 3 F. Stam
  5. 5 H. ter Avest
  6. 52 T. Vilhena
  7. 18 Anass Zarrouk
  8. 32 V. van Crooij
  9. 19 Uriel van Aalst
  10. 7 J. Slory
  11. 9 D. Haen

Bench: A. Ciranni, K. Boogaard, J. Schuurman, Jens Mathijsen, A. Et-Taïbi, O. Martin, Per van Loon, T. Verheydt, K. de Leeuw

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 8 · draws 0 · Willem II 1.

Sparta RotterdamDrawsWillem II
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-18Willem II1-5Sparta RotterdamKNVB Beker
2025-07-26Willem II3-1Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
2025-03-02Sparta Rotterdam4-0Willem IIEredivisie
2024-08-31Willem II1-2Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2024-07-27Willem II2-4Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
2023-07-29Willem II0-3Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
2022-07-20Willem II0-2Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
2022-02-13Sparta Rotterdam1-0Willem IIEredivisie
2021-11-06Willem II0-3Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match