Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 9

Alverca vs Arouca

· Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo· Referee Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Alverca to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AlvercaDrawArouca

Alverca vs Arouca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlvercaDrawArouca
Model34%27%39%
Market44%29%27%
Published41%28%30%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Alverca vs Arouca odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Alverca, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.19Now 2.15 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Alverca2.192.15-0.04
Draw3.393.30-0.09
Arouca3.123.45+0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Alverca and Arouca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Alverca
1.53Arouca
Total expected goals
2.94
Attack rating (Alverca / Arouca)
1.02 / 1.24
Defence rating (Alverca / Arouca)
1.01 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alverca vs Arouca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 7.0% 6.2% 3.2% 1.7% 1 6.3% 12.5% 8.7% 4.5% 2.4% 2 5.2% 8.0% 6.1% 3.1% 1.7% 3 2.4% 3.8% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 4+ 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Alverca goals. Columns: Arouca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alverca vs Arouca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alverca vs Arouca

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Alverca41%2.41
Draw28%3.55
Arouca30%3.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.29
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.52
Double chance1X (Alverca or draw)70%1.44
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Arouca)59%1.71
Handicap -1Alverca win by 2+16%6.26
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Alverca and Arouca recent form

Alverca 3W 1D 2L
Arouca 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Alverca at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.

Arouca away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Alverca at home only, Arouca away only.

Expected lineups

Alverca lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 31 Matheus Mendes
  2. 12 I. James
  3. 21 Sergi Gómez
  4. 14 S. Baseya
  5. 55 Francisco Chissumba
  6. 35 Rayan
  7. 6 D. Gui
  8. 20 Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
  9. 10 Chiquinho
  10. 19 D. Camara
  11. 22 Figueiredo

Bench: Zoubdi, Y. Bojang, André Vidigal, Vasco Moreira, Vivaldo Semedo, C. Nuozzi, S. Merheg, Ian Luccas, Matheus França, Jhonatan, Zé Rafael

Arouca lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 I. de Arruabarrena
  2. 18 O. Lebedenko
  3. 3 José Fontán
  4. 15 Javi Sánchez
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio
  6. 8 T. Fukui
  7. 6 E. van Ee
  8. 7 N. Djouahra
  9. 89 Pedro Santos
  10. 19 A. Trezza
  11. 17 Barbero

Bench: J. Vinarčík, L. Shahar, Diogo Monteiro, B. Popović, F. Mayulu, Pablo Gozálbez, Lee Hyun-Ju, G. Rukavina, Mateo Flores, D. Nandín, B. Mansilla, Mario Climent

Alverca vs Arouca head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Alverca 1 · draws 0 · Arouca 1.

AlvercaDrawsArouca
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-24Alverca2-1AroucaPrimeira Liga
2025-12-14Arouca1-0AlvercaPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match