Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Benfica vs Alverca

· Estádio da Luz, Lisbon· Referee Bruno Pires Costa

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Benfica to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BenficaDrawAlverca

Benfica vs Alverca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBenficaDrawAlverca
Model75%16%9%
Market85%10%5%
Published83%12%6%
Edge-3%+2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Benfica vs Alverca odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-27.

Opened 1.19Now 1.11 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Benfica1.191.11-0.07
Draw7.309.50+2.20
Alverca12.3519.25+6.90

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Benfica and Alverca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.62Benfica
0.82Alverca
Total expected goals
3.44
Attack rating (Benfica / Alverca)
1.83 / 0.90
Defence rating (Benfica / Alverca)
0.74 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Benfica vs Alverca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1 7.7% 7.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 2 11.0% 9.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 9.6% 7.9% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 11.8% 9.7% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: Benfica goals. Columns: Alverca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Benfica vs Alverca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Benfica vs Alverca

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Benfica83%1.21
Draw12%8.68
Alverca6%17.08
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.01
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.11
Double chance1X (Benfica or draw)94%1.06
12 (either side)88%1.13
X2 (draw or Alverca)17%5.76
Handicap -1Benfica win by 2+54%1.84
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Benfica and Alverca recent form

Benfica 5W 0D 1L
Alverca 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Benfica at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Alverca away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica at home only, Alverca away only.

Expected lineups

Benfica lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 24 Samuel Soares
  2. 26 S. Dahl
  3. 2 C. Lenglet
  4. 44 Tomás Araújo
  5. 6 A. Bah
  6. 36 João Palhinha
  7. 8 F. Aursnes
  8. 21 A. Schjelderup
  9. 25 G. Prestianni
  10. 11 D. Lukebakio
  11. 14 V. Pavlidis

Bench: A. Trubin, A. Circati, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński, Manu, J. Durán, Rafa, C. Echeverri, S. El Karouani, Daniel Banjaqui, A. Cabral

Alverca lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 31 Matheus Mendes
  2. 12 I. James
  3. 21 Sergi Gómez
  4. 4 Y. Bojang
  5. 55 Francisco Chissumba
  6. 6 D. Gui
  7. 25 Ian Luccas
  8. 2 Zoubdi
  9. 22 Figueiredo
  10. 19 D. Camara
  11. 10 Chiquinho

Bench: J. Martínez, Vasco Moreira, Vivaldo Semedo, C. Nuozzi, S. Merheg, Z. Kassary, Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques, André Paulo, Matheus França, Toni Tamarit, Zé Rafael

Benfica vs Alverca head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Benfica 2 · draws 0 · Alverca 0.

BenficaDrawsAlverca
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08Benfica2-1AlvercaPrimeira Liga
2025-08-31Alverca1-2BenficaPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match