Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 9

Estoril vs Moreirense

· Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais· Referee Carlos Macedo

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Estoril to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EstorilDrawMoreirense

Estoril vs Moreirense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEstorilDrawMoreirense
Model34%34%32%
Market49%26%25%
Published45%28%26%
Edge-4%+2%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Estoril vs Moreirense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Estoril, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.90Now 1.91 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Estoril1.901.91+0.01
Draw3.513.60+0.09
Moreirense3.903.80-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estoril and Moreirense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Estoril
0.96Moreirense
Total expected goals
1.96
Attack rating (Estoril / Moreirense)
0.60 / 0.72
Defence rating (Estoril / Moreirense)
1.08 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estoril vs Moreirense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.4% 12.1% 6.4% 2.1% 0.6% 1 12.8% 14.9% 6.5% 2.1% 0.6% 2 7.1% 6.8% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 3 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Estoril goals. Columns: Moreirense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estoril vs Moreirense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 31%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estoril vs Moreirense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Estoril45%2.20
Draw28%3.57
Moreirense26%3.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531%3.20
Under 2.569%1.46
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.48
No60%1.68
Double chance1X (Estoril or draw)74%1.36
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Moreirense)55%1.83
Handicap -1Estoril win by 2+14%7.38
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Estoril and Moreirense recent form

Estoril 0W 2D 4L
Moreirense 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estoril at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Moreirense away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Estoril at home only, Moreirense away only.

Expected lineups

Estoril lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Joel Robles
  2. 6 Xavi Sintes
  3. 5 A. Tsoungui
  4. 4 Ferro
  5. 21 R. Jurišić
  6. 10 J. Holsgrove
  7. 12 João Carvalho
  8. 2 Ricard Sánchez
  9. 11 N. Omerović
  10. 9 A. Camblan
  11. 99 R. Guitane

Bench: Fernando Medrano, André Lacximicant, Xeka, Isma Sierra, M. Turk, Peixinho, Tiago Parreira Parente, Pedro Carvalho, S. Andreou, S. Amissah, J. Arnolin, M. Robin

Moreirense lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 André Ferreira
  2. 27 Kiko
  3. 4 Kevyn Monteiro
  4. 66 Gilberto Batista
  5. 76 Dinis Pinto
  6. 23 N. John
  7. 65 Guilherme Liberato
  8. 19 Tiago Andrade
  9. 7 Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
  10. 10 Kiko Bondoso
  11. 79 L. Vonić

Bench: Aranha, Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos, M. Stjepanović, Landerson, Álvaro Martínez, Rodri Alonso, Afonso Assis, Chipyoka Songa, José, Maranhão

Estoril vs Moreirense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Estoril 2 · draws 3 · Moreirense 5.

EstorilDrawsMoreirense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-20Moreirense1-0EstorilPrimeira Liga
2025-12-07Estoril3-3MoreirensePrimeira Liga
2025-05-11Moreirense2-2EstorilPrimeira Liga
2024-12-28Estoril2-2MoreirensePrimeira Liga
2024-05-18Moreirense2-1EstorilPrimeira Liga
2024-01-13Estoril1-3MoreirensePrimeira Liga
2022-05-07Estoril1-0MoreirensePrimeira Liga
2021-12-28Moreirense1-0EstorilPrimeira Liga
2018-02-12Moreirense1-2EstorilPrimeira Liga
2017-09-10Estoril0-2MoreirensePrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match