Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 9

Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu

· Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon· Referee Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Sporting CP to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sporting CPDrawAcademico Viseu

Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSporting CPDrawAcademico Viseu
Model56%24%20%
Market77%14%9%
Published72%17%12%
Edge-5%+3%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.05.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.18Now 1.23 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sporting CP1.181.23+0.05
Draw7.106.80-0.30
Academico Viseu14.0010.70-3.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sporting CP and Academico Viseu expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Sporting CP
1.05Academico Viseu
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Sporting CP / Academico Viseu)
1.63 / 0.93
Defence rating (Sporting CP / Academico Viseu)
0.92 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1 9.0% 11.6% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6% 2 9.4% 9.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.9% 6.2% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 4.2% 4.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Sporting CP goals. Columns: Academico Viseu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sporting CP72%1.39
Draw17%6.03
Academico Viseu12%8.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (Sporting CP or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Academico Viseu)28%3.55
Handicap -1Sporting CP win by 2+33%3.06
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sporting CP and Academico Viseu recent form

Sporting CP 3W 2D 1L
Academico Viseu 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sporting CP at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Academico Viseu away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting CP at home only, Academico Viseu away only.

Expected lineups

Sporting CP lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Kaique
  2. 20 M. Araújo
  3. 25 Gonçalo Inácio
  4. 55 Ibrahima Ba
  5. 22 Iván Fresneda
  6. 77 I. Doumbia
  7. 5 Sergi Altimira
  8. 19 N. Irankunda
  9. 58 Flávio Gonçalves
  10. 31 Luis Guilherme
  11. 97 L. Suárez

Bench: Rui Silva, S. Andersen, F. Ioannidis, João Simões, Rafael Ferreira Nel, Geny Catamo, G. Vagiannidis, M. Zekri, Pedro Lima, J. Derry, Eduardo Quaresma, Eduardo Felicíssimo

Academico Viseu lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 98 Ewerton
  2. 3 Miguel Brau
  3. 2 N. Michelis
  4. 41 A. Correia
  5. 75 Robinho
  6. 7 Luís Silva
  7. 8 C. Kahraman
  8. 22 Nils Mortimer
  9. 14 S. Messeguem
  10. 31 João Guilherme
  11. 33 André Clóvis

Bench: Pedro Barcelos, André Ceitil, M. Bouldini, Á. Zamora, Juan Soriano, Valery, C. Ferreira, Rúben Pereira, Alejandro Mestanza, L. Gohi, G. Costa, Matheus

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match