Estrela vs Casa Pia: model vs market
| Source | Estrela | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.86.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Estrela vs Casa Pia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estrela, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.85 | 1.75 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.75 | +0.29 |
| Casa Pia | 4.20 | 4.75 | +0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estrela and Casa Pia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Estrela / Casa Pia)
- 1.08 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Estrela / Casa Pia)
- 1.18 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estrela vs Casa Pia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estrela goals. Columns: Casa Pia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estrela vs Casa Pia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estrela vs Casa Pia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Casa Pia | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estrela or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Casa Pia) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrela win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Estrela and Casa Pia recent form
Estrela
2W 2D 2L
Casa Pia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estrela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Casa Pia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estrela at home only, Casa Pia away only.
Expected lineups
Estrela lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 24 Léo Linck
- 55 Rafa Soares
- 5 S. Leković
- 30 Patrick Luan
- 21 M. Scholze
- 39 Eddy Doue
- 78 Santiago Serra
- 10 I. Stoica
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 99 A. Marcus
- 37 L. Antonetti
Bench: L. Mincarelli Davin, Bernardo Schappo, K. Höög Jansson, Jefferson Encada, Joan Jordán, David Grilo, T. Moustier, Diogo Pinto, H. Poniewas, A. Chernev, Alisson, B. Souza
Casa Pia lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 P. Sequeira
- 75 Pedro Rosas
- 43 David Sousa
- 3 Kaly
- 18 Geraldes
- 24 S. Pérez
- 80 L. Ofori
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 70 João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 90 Cassiano
Bench: João Goulart, Gabi Pereira, Henrique Araújo, Silvi, E. Maurin, K. Prieto, A. Jatta, Kaique Rocha, J. Livolant, Felipe Silva, Ivan Mandić, JP
Estrela vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Estrela 5 · draws 1 · Casa Pia 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Estrela | 1-2 | Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-03-20 | Estrela | 4-0 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-01 | Casa Pia | 3-5 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-02-09 | Casa Pia | 1-0 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-08-31 | Estrela | 0-1 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-03-08 | Estrela | 3-1 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-10-08 | Casa Pia | 0-1 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-07-15 | Estrela | 1-1 | Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-04-23 | Casa Pia | 3-0 | Estrela | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-12-13 | Estrela | 1-0 | Casa Pia | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Estrela, previous: Arouca v Estrela analysis
- Estrela, next: Moreirense – Estrela, 2026-10-31
- Casa Pia, previous: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction
- Casa Pia, next: Casa Pia v Sporting CP analysis