Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 9

Rio Ave vs Famalicao

· Estádio dos Arcos, Condi Town· Referee Helder Carvalho

Full time0 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Famalicao to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Rio AveDrawFamalicao

Rio Ave vs Famalicao: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRio AveDrawFamalicao
Model31%29%39%
Market26%28%46%
Published27%29%44%
Edge+1%0%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rio Ave vs Famalicao odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Famalicao, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.88Now 2.05 +0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rio Ave4.103.70-0.40
Draw3.503.34-0.16
Famalicao1.882.05+0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rio Ave and Famalicao expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Rio Ave
1.36Famalicao
Total expected goals
2.54
Attack rating (Rio Ave / Famalicao)
0.86 / 0.89
Defence rating (Rio Ave / Famalicao)
1.24 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rio Ave vs Famalicao score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 9.4% 7.3% 3.3% 1.5% 1 8.1% 13.9% 8.6% 3.9% 1.8% 2 5.5% 7.5% 5.1% 2.3% 1.1% 3 2.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Rio Ave goals. Columns: Famalicao goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rio Ave vs Famalicao goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rio Ave vs Famalicao

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rio Ave27%3.70
Draw29%3.51
Famalicao44%2.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.14
Under 2.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.89
No47%2.12
Double chance1X (Rio Ave or draw)56%1.80
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Famalicao)73%1.37
Handicap -1Famalicao win by 2+19%5.30
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rio Ave and Famalicao recent form

Rio Ave 2W 1D 3L
Famalicao 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rio Ave at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Famalicao away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rio Ave at home only, Famalicao away only.

Expected lineups

Rio Ave lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 Vitor Hugo
  2. 17 M. Vrousai
  3. 23 F. Petrasso
  4. 5 A. Ntoi
  5. 20 João Tomé
  6. 54 G. Liavas
  7. 79 M. Patricio
  8. 80 S. Clemmensen
  9. 90 Diogo Nascimento
  10. 7 Diogo Bezerra
  11. 11 J. Blesa

Bench: S. Garcia, Ryan Guilherme, Tamble Monteiro, M. Sellouki, R. Galčík, Gustavo Mancha, T. Nikitscher, Caike, A. Wenck, D. Špikić, E. van der Gouw

Famalicao lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 L. Carević
  2. 2 Gustavo Garcia
  3. 3 L. Realpe
  4. 15 Víctor Rofino
  5. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro
  6. 21 Tamás Szücs
  7. 6 T. van de Looi
  8. 7 Sorriso
  9. 14 Mathias De Amorim
  10. 18 R. Beney
  11. 70 G. Koutsias

Bench: I. Zlobin, F. van Breemen, Marcos Peña, U. Abubakar, Pedro Santos, Óscar Aranda, Paulo Moreira, Gabriel, Mathis Jangeal, V. Serafimović, P. Salas

Rio Ave vs Famalicao head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Rio Ave 1 · draws 6 · Famalicao 3.

Rio AveDrawsFamalicao
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-01Rio Ave0-0FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2025-09-28Famalicao0-0Rio AvePrimeira Liga
2025-03-10Famalicao1-0Rio AvePrimeira Liga
2024-10-04Rio Ave1-1FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2024-02-16Famalicao2-1Rio AvePrimeira Liga
2023-09-16Rio Ave1-1FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2023-05-26Rio Ave2-2FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2023-01-22Famalicao0-0Rio AvePrimeira Liga
2021-02-21Rio Ave0-1FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2020-12-12Rio Ave2-1FamalicaoTaça de Portugal

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match