Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Arouca vs Nacional

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca· Referee Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Arouca to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AroucaDrawNacional

Arouca vs Nacional: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAroucaDrawNacional
Model66%21%13%
Market54%25%21%
Published57%24%19%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Arouca below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Arouca vs Nacional odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arouca, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.83Now 1.75 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Arouca1.831.75-0.08
Draw3.713.77+0.06
Nacional4.114.49+0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arouca and Nacional expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.10Arouca
0.84Nacional
Total expected goals
2.95
Attack rating (Arouca / Nacional)
1.21 / 0.79
Defence rating (Arouca / Nacional)
0.86 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arouca vs Nacional score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 3.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1 10.1% 10.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.6% 9.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 8.2% 6.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 7.0% 5.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Arouca goals. Columns: Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arouca vs Nacional goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arouca vs Nacional

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Arouca57%1.76
Draw24%4.15
Nacional19%5.26
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.77
Under 2.544%2.30
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Arouca or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Nacional)43%2.32
Handicap -1Arouca win by 2+42%2.36
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Arouca and Nacional recent form

Arouca 3W 2D 1L
Nacional 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Arouca at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nacional away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Arouca at home only, Nacional away only.

Expected lineups

Arouca lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 I. de Arruabarrena
  2. 18 O. Lebedenko
  3. 3 José Fontán
  4. 15 Javi Sánchez
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio
  6. 21 Mateo Flores
  7. 6 E. van Ee
  8. 7 N. Djouahra
  9. 8 T. Fukui
  10. 19 A. Trezza
  11. 17 Barbero

Bench: J. Vinarčík, L. Shahar, Diogo Monteiro, B. Popović, F. Mayulu, Pablo Gozálbez, Lee Hyun-Ju, D. Nandín, B. Mansilla, Mario Climent, S. Park

Nacional lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Renato Bellucci
  2. 21 W. Kokolo
  3. 38 Zé Vitor
  4. 33 Francisco Gonçalves
  5. 7 M. Jensen
  6. 8 Miguel Baeza
  7. 6 Matheus Dias
  8. 12 Song Min-Kyu
  9. 15 C. Labidi
  10. 11 S. Gavriel
  11. 29 N. Kader

Bench: José Gomes, A. Obando, Daniel Júnior, João Gonçalves, Ivanildo Fernandes, Matchoi Djaló, D. Dongmo, Deivison, Pablo Ruan

Arouca vs Nacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Arouca 6 · draws 3 · Nacional 1.

AroucaDrawsNacional
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21Arouca3-0NacionalPrimeira Liga
2025-09-20Nacional1-2AroucaPrimeira Liga
2025-02-01Nacional1-2AroucaPrimeira Liga
2024-08-25Arouca1-0NacionalPrimeira Liga
2018-05-06Arouca0-1NacionalSegunda Liga
2017-12-22Nacional2-2AroucaSegunda Liga
2017-01-28Nacional1-1AroucaPrimeira Liga
2016-08-21Arouca2-0NacionalPrimeira Liga
2016-05-01Arouca3-0NacionalPrimeira Liga
2016-01-02Nacional2-2AroucaPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match