Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 9

Vitória SC vs Maritimo

· Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães· Referee Diogo Rosa

Full time5 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Vitória SC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Vitória SCDrawMaritimo

Vitória SC vs Maritimo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVitória SCDrawMaritimo
Model35%33%33%
Market61%23%16%
Published55%25%20%
Edge-7%+2%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Vitória SC vs Maritimo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vitória SC, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 1.73Now 1.55 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Vitória SC1.731.55-0.18
Draw3.624.10+0.47
Maritimo4.956.00+1.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Vitória SC and Maritimo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08Vitória SC
1.04Maritimo
Total expected goals
2.12
Attack rating (Vitória SC / Maritimo)
0.63 / 0.93
Defence rating (Vitória SC / Maritimo)
0.91 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vitória SC vs Maritimo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.4% 11.2% 6.5% 2.3% 0.7% 1 11.6% 14.8% 7.0% 2.4% 0.8% 2 7.0% 7.3% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 3 2.5% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Vitória SC goals. Columns: Maritimo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vitória SC vs Maritimo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vitória SC vs Maritimo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vitória SC55%1.83
Draw25%3.93
Maritimo20%4.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.82
Under 2.565%1.55
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.27
No56%1.78
Double chance1X (Vitória SC or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Maritimo)45%2.20
Handicap -1Vitória SC win by 2+14%6.97
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Vitória SC and Maritimo recent form

Vitória SC 1W 2D 3L
Maritimo 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vitória SC at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Maritimo away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Vitória SC at home only, Maritimo away only.

Expected lineups

Vitória SC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 98 Lucas Furtado
  2. 13 João Mendes
  3. 5 A. Sidibé
  4. 21 T. Borevković
  5. 23 T. Strata
  6. 8 Gonçalo Nogueira
  7. 16 Beni
  8. 7 O. Camara
  9. 20 Samu
  10. 11 Gustavo
  11. 9 A. Jakupovic

Bench: Miguel Maga, Óscar Rivas, M. Mitrović, Alan, Y. Mosquera, Miguel Nogueira, V. Andersson, A. Ndoye, V. Ouotro, L. Doucet, O. Zych

Maritimo lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Fran Vieites
  2. 23 Paulo Henrique
  3. 22 G. Szalai
  4. 44 Romain Correia
  5. 2 Igor Julião
  6. 14 Raphael Guzzo
  7. 6 Rodrigo Andrade
  8. 10 Martín Tejón
  9. 8 M. Dominguez
  10. 15 Tomás Tavares
  11. 17 Adrián Butzke

Bench: Gonçalo Tabuaço, N. Ogbeta, Rafael Fernandes, Nilton Varela, M. Diouri, M. Bassouamina, Alfonso Pastor, I. Alani, S. Bamba, B. Limbombe, I. Ayuma, Maurice Osei Boakye

Vitória SC vs Maritimo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Vitória SC 8 · draws 2 · Maritimo 0.

Vitória SCDrawsMaritimo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-04-29Maritimo1-2Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2022-11-13Vitória SC1-0MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2022-03-13Maritimo0-1Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2021-10-22Vitória SC2-1MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2021-05-16Maritimo0-0Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2021-01-31Vitória SC1-0MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2020-07-19Vitória SC1-0MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2020-01-12Maritimo0-0Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2019-03-04Vitória SC1-0MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2018-10-06Maritimo1-3Vitória SCPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match