Nacional vs SC Braga: model vs market
| Source | Nacional | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| Published | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Nacional vs SC Braga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SC Braga, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 6.40 | 6.80 | +0.40 |
| Draw | 4.12 | 4.32 | +0.20 |
| SC Braga | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nacional and SC Braga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (Nacional / SC Braga)
- 0.77 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Nacional / SC Braga)
- 1.33 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nacional vs SC Braga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nacional goals. Columns: SC Braga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nacional vs SC Braga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nacional vs SC Braga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 17% | 5.99 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| SC Braga | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nacional or draw) | 41% | 2.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Braga) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nacional and SC Braga recent form
Nacional
0W 0D 6L
SC Braga
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
SC Braga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nacional at home only, SC Braga away only.
Expected lineups
Nacional lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Renato Bellucci
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 38 Zé Vitor
- 33 Francisco Gonçalves
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 8 Miguel Baeza
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 12 Song Min-Kyu
- 15 C. Labidi
- 7 M. Jensen
- 29 N. Kader
Bench: Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz, José Gomes, A. Obando, Daniel Júnior, João Gonçalves, Ivanildo Fernandes, F. Nava, Matchoi Djaló, Joel da Silva, D. Dongmo, Deivison, Pablo Ruan
SC Braga lineup · 3-4-3
- 31 Bernardo Fontes
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 22 Sergio Barcia
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 11 Gabriel Silva
- 16 Tomás Marqués
- 29 J. Gorby
- 2 Víctor Gómez
- 10 Pau Victor
- 17 J. Milošević
- 21 Ricardo Horta
Bench: Vitor Carvalho, Diogo Travassos, João Moutinho, Fran Navarro, M. Dorgeles, D. Huseinbašić, E. Tıknaz, A. Barišić, A. Bajrami, Diego Rodrigues, Gabri Martínez, João Carvalho
Nacional vs SC Braga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nacional 1 · draws 1 · SC Braga 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Nacional | 1-2 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-23 | SC Braga | 4-2 | Nacional | Taça de Portugal |
| 2025-09-28 | SC Braga | 0-1 | Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-02-21 | SC Braga | 1-0 | Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-09-20 | Nacional | 0-3 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-12-22 | Nacional | 1-3 | SC Braga | Taça da Liga |
| 2023-04-25 | SC Braga | 2-2 | Nacional | Taça de Portugal |
| 2023-04-12 | Nacional | 0-5 | SC Braga | Taça de Portugal |
| 2021-02-28 | Nacional | 1-2 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 2020-10-17 | SC Braga | 2-1 | Nacional | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Vitória SC vs Maritimo — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Estrela v Casa Pia — match page 2026-10-24
- Alverca vs Arouca 2026-10-24
- GIL Vicente vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Estoril v Moreirense — match page 2026-10-25
- Rio Ave v Famalicao — match page 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu 2026-10-25
- Santa Clara vs Benfica — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Nacional, previous: Rio Ave vs Nacional prediction
- Nacional, next: Arouca vs Nacional prediction
- SC Braga, previous: SC Braga – Gent, 2026-10-22
- SC Braga, next: SC Braga v Famalicao analysis