Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 9

Santa Clara vs Benfica

· Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada· Referee Claudio Pereira

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Benfica to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Santa ClaraDrawBenfica

Santa Clara vs Benfica: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSanta ClaraDrawBenfica
Model23%26%52%
Market10%18%72%
Published13%20%67%
Edge+3%+2%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Santa Clara vs Benfica odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.40Now 1.30 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Santa Clara7.759.50+1.75
Draw4.505.05+0.55
Benfica1.401.30-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Santa Clara and Benfica expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Santa Clara
1.77Benfica
Total expected goals
2.88
Attack rating (Santa Clara / Benfica)
1.05 / 1.94
Defence rating (Santa Clara / Benfica)
0.74 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Santa Clara vs Benfica score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 8.8% 8.8% 5.2% 3.4% 1 5.1% 12.1% 9.8% 5.8% 3.8% 2 3.5% 6.1% 5.4% 3.2% 2.1% 3 1.3% 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 4+ 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Santa Clara goals. Columns: Benfica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Santa Clara vs Benfica goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Santa Clara vs Benfica

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Santa Clara13%7.67
Draw20%4.94
Benfica67%1.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.22
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Santa Clara or draw)33%3.00
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Benfica)87%1.15
Handicap -1Benfica win by 2+29%3.41
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Santa Clara and Benfica recent form

Santa Clara 3W 2D 1L
Benfica 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Santa Clara at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Benfica away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
3.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Santa Clara at home only, Benfica away only.

Expected lineups

Santa Clara lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Lucas França
  2. 5 Guilherme Romão
  3. 21 Emanuel Fernandes
  4. 4 Pedro Pacheco
  5. 42 Lucas Soares
  6. 41 Daniel Borges
  7. 6 Pedro Ferreira
  8. 20 Tiago Ribeiro
  9. 7 Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira
  10. 70 Vinícius Lopes
  11. 10 Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos

Bench: Henrique Silva, Welinton Torrão, Neneca, João Vasconcelos, A. Duarte, Vitinho, F. Medeiros, Léo Jacó, Seydou Fofana, Sorriso

Benfica lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 24 Samuel Soares
  2. 26 S. Dahl
  3. 2 C. Lenglet
  4. 44 Tomás Araújo
  5. 6 A. Bah
  6. 8 F. Aursnes
  7. 36 João Palhinha
  8. 25 G. Prestianni
  9. 10 H. Sudakov
  10. 27 Rafa
  11. 14 V. Pavlidis

Bench: A. Trubin, A. Circati, D. Lukebakio, Manu, A. Schjelderup, J. Durán, C. Echeverri, Gabriel Indio, S. El Karouani, J. Neto, A. Cabral

Santa Clara vs Benfica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Santa Clara 0 · draws 1 · Benfica 9.

Santa ClaraDrawsBenfica
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-13Santa Clara1-2BenficaPrimeira Liga
2025-09-12Benfica1-1Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2025-02-15Santa Clara0-1BenficaPrimeira Liga
2024-10-30Benfica3-0Santa ClaraTaça da Liga
2024-09-14Benfica4-1Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2023-05-27Benfica3-0Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2023-01-21Santa Clara0-3BenficaPrimeira Liga
2022-02-12Benfica2-1Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2021-09-11Santa Clara0-5BenficaPrimeira Liga
2021-04-26Benfica2-1Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match