Moreirense vs Estrela: model vs market
| Source | Moreirense | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Moreirense vs Estrela odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estrela, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 2.89 | 2.81 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.22 | -0.14 |
| Estrela | 2.58 | 2.50 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Moreirense and Estrela expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Moreirense / Estrela)
- 0.87 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Moreirense / Estrela)
- 1.11 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Moreirense vs Estrela score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Moreirense goals. Columns: Estrela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Moreirense vs Estrela goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Moreirense vs Estrela
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moreirense | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Estrela | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Moreirense or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Estrela) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrela win by 2+ | 15% | 6.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Moreirense and Estrela recent form
Moreirense
2W 1D 3L
Estrela
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Moreirense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Estrela away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Moreirense at home only, Estrela away only.
Expected lineups
Moreirense lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 13 André Ferreira
- 27 Kiko
- 4 Kevyn Monteiro
- 66 Gilberto Batista
- 76 Dinis Pinto
- 65 Guilherme Liberato
- 23 N. John
- 11 Landerson
- 7 Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 19 Tiago Andrade
- 79 L. Vonić
Bench: Aranha, Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos, M. Stjepanović, Álvaro Martínez, Rodri Alonso, Afonso Assis, Maracás, Chipyoka Songa, José, Afonso Vieira, Maranhão
Estrela lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 24 Léo Linck
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 30 Patrick Luan
- 5 S. Leković
- 21 M. Scholze
- 6 K. Höög Jansson
- 78 Santiago Serra
- 10 I. Stoica
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 99 A. Marcus
- 37 L. Antonetti
Bench: Bernardo Schappo, Jefferson Encada, David Grilo, T. Moustier, R. Muteba, Diogo Pinto, Rafa Soares, E. Pedro Vanga, H. Poniewas, A. Chernev
Moreirense vs Estrela head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Moreirense 4 · draws 4 · Estrela 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Moreirense | 3-2 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-12-20 | Estrela | 0-0 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-03-02 | Moreirense | 1-1 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-09-28 | Estrela | 2-1 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-04-07 | Moreirense | 2-2 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-11-11 | Estrela | 0-1 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-05-06 | Estrela | 2-4 | Moreirense | Segunda Liga |
| 2022-12-31 | Moreirense | 0-0 | Estrela | Segunda Liga |
| 2022-11-27 | Moreirense | 4-2 | Estrela | Taça da Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Porto vs Estoril 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
- Benfica vs Alverca — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Moreirense, previous: Estoril v Moreirense analysis
- Moreirense, next: Sporting CP vs Moreirense: odds and pick
- Estrela, previous: Estrela – Casa Pia, 2026-10-24
- Estrela, next: Estrela vs Benfica: odds and pick