Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

· Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Mayor· Referee Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Sporting CP to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Casa PiaDrawSporting CP

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCasa PiaDrawSporting CP
Model21%26%53%
Market9%16%75%
Published12%19%69%
Edge+3%+3%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.98.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.23Now 1.26 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Casa Pia11.5010.25-1.25
Draw6.055.85-0.20
Sporting CP1.231.26+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Casa Pia and Sporting CP expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.98Casa Pia
1.70Sporting CP
Total expected goals
2.68
Attack rating (Casa Pia / Sporting CP)
0.69 / 1.49
Defence rating (Casa Pia / Sporting CP)
0.92 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 10.6% 9.9% 5.6% 3.5% 1 5.6% 12.6% 9.7% 5.5% 3.4% 2 3.3% 5.6% 4.7% 2.7% 1.7% 3 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Casa Pia goals. Columns: Sporting CP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Casa Pia12%8.32
Draw19%5.36
Sporting CP69%1.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.00
Under 2.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Casa Pia or draw)31%3.26
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Sporting CP)88%1.14
Handicap -1Sporting CP win by 2+30%3.35
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Casa Pia and Sporting CP recent form

Casa Pia 3W 1D 2L
Sporting CP 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Casa Pia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting CP away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Casa Pia at home only, Sporting CP away only.

Expected lineups

Casa Pia lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 P. Sequeira
  2. 75 Pedro Rosas
  3. 43 David Sousa
  4. 3 Kaly
  5. 18 Geraldes
  6. 80 L. Ofori
  7. 24 S. Pérez
  8. 77 B. Pauwels
  9. 70 João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
  10. 11 M. El Boukammiri
  11. 9 Henrique Araújo

Bench: João Goulart, Gabi Pereira, Silvi, E. Maurin, K. Prieto, A. Jatta, J. Livolant, Felipe Silva, Abdu Dafe, Cassiano, Ivan Mandić, JP

Sporting CP lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Kaique
  2. 20 M. Araújo
  3. 25 Gonçalo Inácio
  4. 72 Eduardo Quaresma
  5. 22 Iván Fresneda
  6. 4 S. Andersen
  7. 5 Sergi Altimira
  8. 19 N. Irankunda
  9. 21 Pedro Lima
  10. 31 Luis Guilherme
  11. 97 L. Suárez

Bench: Rui Silva, F. Ioannidis, João Simões, Rafael Ferreira Nel, Geny Catamo, G. Vagiannidis, M. Zekri, J. Derry, Ibrahima Ba, Flávio Gonçalves, Eduardo Felicíssimo, I. Doumbia

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Casa Pia 0 · draws 0 · Sporting CP 9.

Casa PiaDrawsSporting CP
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-16Sporting CP3-0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2025-08-08Casa Pia0-2Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2025-03-09Casa Pia1-3Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2024-10-05Sporting CP2-0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2024-01-29Sporting CP8-0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2023-08-18Casa Pia1-2Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2023-04-09Casa Pia3-4Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2022-10-22Sporting CP3-1Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2021-12-22Casa Pia1-2Sporting CPTaça de Portugal

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match