Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

SC Braga vs Famalicao

· Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga· Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was SC Braga to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SC BragaDrawFamalicao

SC Braga vs Famalicao: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSC BragaDrawFamalicao
Model28%32%40%
Market57%25%18%
Published50%27%23%
Edge-7%+2%+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SC Braga vs Famalicao odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SC Braga, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.73Now 1.66 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SC Braga1.731.66-0.07
Draw3.633.77+0.14
Famalicao4.905.25+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SC Braga and Famalicao expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.92SC Braga
1.16Famalicao
Total expected goals
2.08
Attack rating (SC Braga / Famalicao)
0.73 / 1.10
Defence rating (SC Braga / Famalicao)
0.86 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SC Braga vs Famalicao score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.8% 13.2% 8.4% 3.3% 1.2% 1 10.1% 14.7% 7.8% 3.0% 1.1% 2 5.3% 6.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 3 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: SC Braga goals. Columns: Famalicao goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SC Braga vs Famalicao goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SC Braga vs Famalicao

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SC Braga50%2.02
Draw27%3.72
Famalicao23%4.26
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.89
Under 2.565%1.53
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.34
No57%1.74
Double chance1X (SC Braga or draw)77%1.31
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Famalicao)50%1.98
Handicap -1SC Braga win by 2+10%9.94
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SC Braga and Famalicao recent form

SC Braga 1W 1D 4L
Famalicao 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SC Braga at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Famalicao away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: SC Braga at home only, Famalicao away only.

Expected lineups

SC Braga lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Bernardo Fontes
  2. 7 Diogo Travassos
  3. 37 A. Barišić
  4. 22 Sergio Barcia
  5. 2 Víctor Gómez
  6. 8 João Moutinho
  7. 6 Vitor Carvalho
  8. 77 Gabri Martínez
  9. 21 Ricardo Horta
  10. 20 M. Dorgeles
  11. 9 Fran Navarro

Bench: Pau Victor, Tiago Sá, G. Lagerbielke, J. Milošević, J. Wind, D. Huseinbašić, J. Gorby, E. Tıknaz, A. Bajrami, Diego Rodrigues

Famalicao lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 L. Carević
  2. 2 Gustavo Garcia
  3. 3 L. Realpe
  4. 15 Víctor Rofino
  5. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro
  6. 14 Mathias De Amorim
  7. 6 T. van de Looi
  8. 7 Sorriso
  9. 10 Pedro Santos
  10. 18 R. Beney
  11. 70 G. Koutsias

Bench: I. Zlobin, F. van Breemen, Marcos Peña, U. Abubakar, Óscar Aranda, Paulo Moreira, Gil Dias, Mathis Jangeal, Pedro Francisco, V. Serafimović, P. Salas

SC Braga vs Famalicao head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: SC Braga 4 · draws 4 · Famalicao 2.

SC BragaDrawsFamalicao
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-10-29SC Braga2-2FamalicaoTaça da Liga
2026-04-19SC Braga2-2FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2025-12-06Famalicao1-2SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2025-04-25Famalicao1-1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2024-12-16SC Braga3-3FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2024-01-18Famalicao1-2SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2023-08-11SC Braga1-2FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2023-02-05SC Braga4-1FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2022-08-12Famalicao0-3SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2022-05-15Famalicao3-2SC BragaPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match